Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas and an ozone-depleting agent with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N2O-depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N2O (aN2O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N2O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN2O at the air sampling sites: Alert, Barrow, Ragged Point, Samoa, Ascension Island, and Cape Grim for the modern and preindustrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal-average N2O fluxes for most sites, but, seasonal peak-to-peak amplitudes differ severalfold across models. After transport, the seasonal amplitude of surface aN2O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21-52% of median) for land, 0.14 to 0.25 ppb (19-42%) for ocean, and 0.13 to 0.76 ppb (26-52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed range is 0.53 to 1.08 ppb. The stratospheric contributions to aN2O, inferred by the difference between surface-troposphere model and observations, show 36-126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ~1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Our results demonstrate an increasing importance of land fluxes for aN2O seasonality, with land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude increasing since the preindustrial era and are projected to grow under anthropogenic activities. In situ aN2O observations and atmospheric transport-chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting surface N2O sources under ongoing global warming.

The long-term net sink of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the northern permafrost region is projected to weaken or shift under climate change. But large uncertainties remain, even on present-day GHG budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling, process-based models) and top-down budgets (atmospheric inversion models) of the main GHGs (CO2, CH4, and N2O) and lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000-2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land to atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs compared to top-down atmospheric inversions. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches respectively show a net sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (-31 (-667, 559) and -587 (-862, -312), respectively) but sources of CH4 (38 (23, 53) and 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4-C yr-1) and N2O (0.6 (0.03, 1.2) and 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O-N yr-1) in natural ecosystems. Assuming equal weight to bottom-up and top-down budgets and including anthropogenic emissions, the combined GHG budget is a source of 147 (-492, 759) Tg CO2-Ceq yr-1 (GWP100). A net CO2 sink in boreal forests and wetlands is offset by CO2 emissions from inland waters and CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller additional warming from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include representation of inland waters in process-based models and compilation of process-model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more in-situ flux observations and improved resolution in upscaling.

Mountainous watersheds are characterized by variability in functional traits, including vegetation, topography, geology, and geomorphology, which together determine nitrogen (N) retention, and release. Coal Creek and East River are two contrasting catchments within the Upper Colorado River Basin that differ markedly in total nitrate (NO3-) export. The East River has a diverse vegetation cover, sinuous floodplains, and is underlain by N-rich marine shale, resulting in a three to twelve times greater total NO3- export relative to the conifer-dominated Coal Creek. While this can partly be explained by the larger size of the East River, the distinct watershed traits of these two catchments imply different mechanisms controlling the aggregate N-export signal. A causality analysis shows biogenic and geogenic processes were critical in determining NO3- export from the East River catchment. Stable isotope ratios of NO3- (δ15NNO3 and δ18ONO3) show the East River catchment is a strong hotspot for biogeochemical processing of NO3- at the soil-saprolite interface and within the floodplain prior to export. By contrast, the conifer-dominated Coal Creek retained nearly all (~97 %) atmospherically-deposited NO3-, and its export was controlled by catchment hydrological traits (i.e., snowmelt periods and water table depth). The conservative N-cycle within Coal Creek is likely due to the abundance of conifer trees, and a smaller riparian region, retaining more NO3- overall and reduced processing prior to export. This study highlights the value of integrating isotope systematics to link watershed functional traits to mechanisms of watershed element retention and release.

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regionally LULCC projections by integrated assessment models. The uncertainty associated with different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on the impacts on the carbon cycle over ABoVE domain. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and Demeter model to generate 0.25-degree gridded LULCC data with the same input of regional LULCC projections from Global Change Analysis Model, under SSP126 and SSP585. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive CLM5 to prognostically simulate terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between two LULCC datasets under both SSP126 and SSP585. The LULCC differences further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected carbon cycle variables, which are more than 79% of the contributions of LULCC in 2100. Besides, the difference for LULCC and carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

We present a representation of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the vegetation demography model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), within the Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) land model. This representation is modular, and designed to allow testing of multiple hypothetical approaches for carbon-nutrient coupling in plants. The model tracks nutrient uptake, losses via turnover from both live plants and mortality into soil decomposition, and allocation during tissue growth for a large number of size- and functional-type-resolved plant cohorts within a time-since-disturbance-resolved ecosystem. Root uptake is governed by fine root biomass, and plants vary in their fine root carbon allocation in order to balance carbon and nutrient limitations to growth. We test the sensitivity of the model to a wide range of parameter variations and structural representations, and in the context of observations at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. A key model prediction is that plants in the high-light-availability canopy positions allocate more carbon to fine roots than plants in low-light understory environments, given the widely different carbon versus nutrient constraints of these two niches within a given ecosystem. This model provides a basis for exploring carbon-nutrient coupling with vegetation demography within Earth System Models (ESMs).

Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH4) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes (FCH4) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach has been developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that 1) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at short- to intermediate time scales (< 15 days); 2) most of the models can capture the CH4 variability at long time scales (> 32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have limited performance for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; 3) model error approximates pink noise patterns, indicating that biases at short time scales (< 5 days) could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and 4) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g. proxy of CH4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH4 variability in future wetland CH4 model developments.

Permafrost-affected ecosystems are prone to warming and thawing, which can increase the availability of subsurface nitrogen (N) with consequences for otherwise N-limited tundra vegetation. Here, we show that the upper permafrost of the Tibetan Plateau is subject to thawing and that the upper permafrost zone is rich in ammonium. Furthermore, a five-year 15N tracer experiment showed that long-rooted plant species were able to utilize 15N-labeled N at the permafrost table and far below the main root zone. A 20 years survey is used here to document that long-rooted plant species had a competitive advantage at sites subject to warming and that both plant composition and growth were significantly correlated with permafrost thawing and changes in nitrogen availability. Our experiment documents a clear feedback mechanism of climate warming, which releases plant–available N favoring long-rooted plants and explains important changes in plant composition and growth across sites on the Tibetan Plateau.