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Two decades of permafrost region CO2, CH4, and N2O budgets suggest a small net greenhouse gas source to the atmosphere
  • +40
  • Gustaf Hugelius,
  • Justine Lucile Ramage,
  • Eleanor J. Burke,
  • Abhishek Chatterjee,
  • Thomas Luke Smallman,
  • Tuula Aalto,
  • Ana Bastos,
  • Christina Biasi,
  • Josep G. Canadell,
  • Naveen Chandra,
  • Frederic Chevallier,
  • Philippe Ciais,
  • Jinfeng Chang,
  • Liang Feng,
  • Matthew W Jones,
  • Thomas Kleinen,
  • McKenzie Kuhn,
  • Ronny Lauerwald,
  • Junjie Liu,
  • Efrén López-Blanco,
  • Ingrid Theodora Luijkx,
  • Maija E Marushchak,
  • Susan M. Natali,
  • Yosuke Niwa,
  • David Olefeldt,
  • Paul Palmer,
  • Prabir K. Patra,
  • Wouter Peters,
  • Stefano Potter,
  • Benjamin Poulter,
  • Brendan Rogers,
  • William J. Riley,
  • Marielle SAUNOIS,
  • Ted A.G. Schuur,
  • Rona L. Thompson,
  • Claire Clark Treat,
  • Aki Tsuruta,
  • Merritt R Turetsky,
  • Anna- Maria Virkkala,
  • Carolina Voigt,
  • Jennifer Watts,
  • Qing Zhu,
  • Bo Zheng
Gustaf Hugelius
Stockholm University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Justine Lucile Ramage
Stockholm University
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Eleanor J. Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre for Cllimate Prediction and Research
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Abhishek Chatterjee
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Thomas Luke Smallman
University of Edinburgh
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Tuula Aalto
Finnish Meteorological Institute
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Ana Bastos
Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
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Christina Biasi
University of Eastern Finland
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Josep G. Canadell
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
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Naveen Chandra
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Frederic Chevallier
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE)
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Philippe Ciais
Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE)
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Jinfeng Chang
Zhejiang University
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Liang Feng
University of Edinburgh
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Matthew W Jones
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
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Thomas Kleinen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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McKenzie Kuhn
University of New Hampshire
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Ronny Lauerwald
Université Paris Saclay
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Junjie Liu
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Efrén López-Blanco
Aarhus University & University of Edinburgh
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Ingrid Theodora Luijkx
Wageningen University
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Maija E Marushchak
University of Eastern Finland
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Susan M. Natali
Woodwell Climate Research Center
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Yosuke Niwa
National Institute for Environmental Studies
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David Olefeldt
University of Alberta
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Paul Palmer
University of Edinburgh
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Prabir K. Patra
JAMSTEC
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Wouter Peters
Wageningen University
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Stefano Potter
Woodwell Climate Research Center
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Benjamin Poulter
NASA
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Brendan Rogers
Woodwell Climate Research Center
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William J. Riley
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOE)
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Marielle SAUNOIS
LSCE-IPSL (CEA/CNRS/UVSQ)
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Ted A.G. Schuur
Northern Arizona University
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Rona L. Thompson
Norwegian Institute for Air Research
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Claire Clark Treat
Alfred Wegener Institute
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Aki Tsuruta
FMI
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Merritt R Turetsky
University of Colorado Boulder
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Anna- Maria Virkkala
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
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Carolina Voigt
University of Eastern Finland
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Jennifer Watts
Woodwell Climate Research Center
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Qing Zhu
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOE)
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Bo Zheng
Tsinghua University
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Abstract

The long-term net sink of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the northern permafrost region is projected to weaken or shift under climate change. But large uncertainties remain, even on present-day GHG budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling, process-based models) and top-down budgets (atmospheric inversion models) of the main GHGs (CO2, CH4, and N2O) and lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000-2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land to atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs compared to top-down atmospheric inversions. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches respectively show a net sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (-31 (-667, 559) and -587 (-862, -312), respectively) but sources of CH4 (38 (23, 53) and 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4-C yr-1) and N2O (0.6 (0.03, 1.2) and 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O-N yr-1) in natural ecosystems. Assuming equal weight to bottom-up and top-down budgets and including anthropogenic emissions, the combined GHG budget is a source of 147 (-492, 759) Tg CO2-Ceq yr-1 (GWP100). A net CO2 sink in boreal forests and wetlands is offset by CO2 emissions from inland waters and CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller additional warming from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include representation of inland waters in process-based models and compilation of process-model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more in-situ flux observations and improved resolution in upscaling.
11 Sep 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
11 Sep 2023Published in ESS Open Archive