Uncertain spatial pattern of future land use and land cover change and
its impacts on terrestrial carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal region of
North America
Abstract
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of
human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on ecosystem
carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded
LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regionally LULCC
projections by integrated assessment models. The uncertainty associated
with different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on subsequent
model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined.
This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial
downscaling methods and focused on the impacts on the carbon cycle over
ABoVE domain. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model
(FLUS) and Demeter model to generate 0.25-degree gridded LULCC data with
the same input of regional LULCC projections from Global Change Analysis
Model, under SSP126 and SSP585. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were
used to drive CLM5 to prognostically simulate terrestrial carbon cycle
dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large
spatial-temporal differences between two LULCC datasets under both
SSP126 and SSP585. The LULCC differences further lead to large
discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected carbon cycle
variables, which are more than 79% of the contributions of LULCC in
2100. Besides, the difference for LULCC and carbon flux under SSP126 is
generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the
importance of considering the uncertainties induced by spatial
downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle
simulations.