The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the terrestrial permafrost region using databases of more than 1000 in-situ flux measurements and a land cover-based ecosystem flux upscaling approach for the period 2000-2020. Estimates indicate that the permafrost region emitted a mean annual flux of 0.36 (-620, 652) Tg CO2-C y-1, 38 (21, 53) Tg CH4-C y-1, and 0.62 (0.03, 1.2) Tg N2O-N y-1 to the atmosphere throughout the period. While the region was a net source of CH4 and N2O, the CO2 budget was near neutral with large uncertainties. Terrestrial ecosystems remained a CO2 sink, but emissions from fire disturbances and inland waters largely offset the sink in vegetated ecosystems. Including lateral fluxes, the permafrost region was a net source of C and N, releasing 136 (-517, 821) Tg C y-1 and 3.2 (1.9, 4.8) Tg N y-1. Large uncertainty ranges in these estimates point to a need for further expansion of monitoring networks, continued data synthesis efforts, and better integration of field observations, remote sensing data, and ecosystem models to constrain the contemporary net GHG budgets of the permafrost region and track their future trajectory.

The long-term net sink of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the northern permafrost region is projected to weaken or shift under climate change. But large uncertainties remain, even on present-day GHG budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling, process-based models) and top-down budgets (atmospheric inversion models) of the main GHGs (CO2, CH4, and N2O) and lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000-2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land to atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs compared to top-down atmospheric inversions. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches respectively show a net sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (-31 (-667, 559) and -587 (-862, -312), respectively) but sources of CH4 (38 (23, 53) and 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4-C yr-1) and N2O (0.6 (0.03, 1.2) and 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O-N yr-1) in natural ecosystems. Assuming equal weight to bottom-up and top-down budgets and including anthropogenic emissions, the combined GHG budget is a source of 147 (-492, 759) Tg CO2-Ceq yr-1 (GWP100). A net CO2 sink in boreal forests and wetlands is offset by CO2 emissions from inland waters and CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller additional warming from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include representation of inland waters in process-based models and compilation of process-model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more in-situ flux observations and improved resolution in upscaling.

Methane (CH4) emissions from climate-sensitive ecosystems within the northern permafrost region represent a large but highly uncertain source, with current estimates spanning a factor of seven (11 – 75 Tg CH4 yr-1). Accelerating permafrost thaw threatens significant increases in pan-Arctic CH4 emissions, amplifying the permafrost carbon feedback. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy with meter-scale spatial resolution and broad coverage to identify a previously undiscovered CH4 hotspot adjacent to an intensively studied thermokarst lake in interior Alaska. Hotspot emissions were confined to < 1% of the 10 ha study area. Ground-based chamber measurements confirmed average daily fluxes of 1,170 mg CH4 m-2 d-1, with extreme daily maxima up to 24,200 mg CH4 m-2 d-1. Ground-based geophysics measurements revealed thawed permafrost at and directly beneath the CH4 hotspot, extending to a depth of ~15 m, indicating that the intense CH4 emissions likely originated from recently thawed permafrost. Emissions from the hotspot accounted for ~40% of total diffusive CH4 emissions from the entire study area. Combining these results with hotspot statistics from our 70,000 km2 airborne survey across Alaska and northwestern Canada, we estimate that terrestrial thermokarst hotspots currently emit 1.1 (0.1 – 5.2) Tg CH4 yr-1, or roughly 4% of the annual pan-Arctic wetland budget from just 0.01% of the northern permafrost land area. Our results suggest that significant proportions of pan-Arctic CH4 emissions originate from disproportionately small areas of previously undetermined thermokarst emissions hotspots, and that pan-Arctic CH4 emissions may increase non-linearly as thermokarst processes increase under a warming climate.