loading page

The net GHG balance and budget of the permafrost region (2000-2020) from ecosystem flux upscaling
  • +17
  • Justine Lucile Ramage,
  • McKenzie Kuhn,
  • Anna- Maria Virkkala,
  • Carolina Voigt,
  • Maija E Marushchak,
  • Ana Bastos,
  • Christina Biasi,
  • Josep G. Canadell,
  • Philippe Ciais,
  • Efrén López-Blanco,
  • Susan M. Natali,
  • David Olefeldt,
  • Stefano Potter,
  • Benjamin Poulter,
  • Brendan Rogers,
  • Ted A.G. Schuur,
  • Claire Clark Treat,
  • Merritt R Turetsky,
  • Jennifer Watts,
  • Gustaf Hugelius
Justine Lucile Ramage
Stockholm University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
McKenzie Kuhn
University of New Hampshire
Author Profile
Anna- Maria Virkkala
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Author Profile
Carolina Voigt
University of Eastern Finland
Author Profile
Maija E Marushchak
University of Eastern Finland
Author Profile
Ana Bastos
Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
Author Profile
Christina Biasi
University of Eastern Finland
Author Profile
Josep G. Canadell
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Author Profile
Philippe Ciais
Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE)
Author Profile
Efrén López-Blanco
Aarhus University & University of Edinburgh
Author Profile
Susan M. Natali
Woodwell Climate Research Center
Author Profile
David Olefeldt
University of Alberta
Author Profile
Stefano Potter
Woodwell Climate Research Center
Author Profile
Benjamin Poulter
NASA
Author Profile
Brendan Rogers
Woodwell Climate Research Center
Author Profile
Ted A.G. Schuur
Northern Arizona University
Author Profile
Claire Clark Treat
Alfred Wegener Institute
Author Profile
Merritt R Turetsky
University of Colorado Boulder
Author Profile
Jennifer Watts
Woodwell Climate Research Center
Author Profile
Gustaf Hugelius
Stockholm University
Author Profile

Abstract

The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the terrestrial permafrost region using databases of more than 1000 in-situ flux measurements and a land cover-based ecosystem flux upscaling approach for the period 2000-2020. Estimates indicate that the permafrost region emitted a mean annual flux of 0.36 (-620, 652) Tg CO2-C y-1, 38 (21, 53) Tg CH4-C y-1, and 0.62 (0.03, 1.2) Tg N2O-N y-1 to the atmosphere throughout the period. While the region was a net source of CH4 and N2O, the CO2 budget was near neutral with large uncertainties. Terrestrial ecosystems remained a CO2 sink, but emissions from fire disturbances and inland waters largely offset the sink in vegetated ecosystems. Including lateral fluxes, the permafrost region was a net source of C and N, releasing 136 (-517, 821) Tg C y-1 and 3.2 (1.9, 4.8) Tg N y-1. Large uncertainty ranges in these estimates point to a need for further expansion of monitoring networks, continued data synthesis efforts, and better integration of field observations, remote sensing data, and ecosystem models to constrain the contemporary net GHG budgets of the permafrost region and track their future trajectory.
13 Sep 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
13 Sep 2023Published in ESS Open Archive