Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) is a greenhouse gas that has a significant, yet uncertain, impact on the Earth’s climate through its radiative effect and feedback. As the climate changes, it is thus critical to monitor and understand changes in SWV. NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounding (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite has observed SWV since 2004 but will soon reach end of life. The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions observe SWV as well, with the SAGE III instrument operating on the International Space Station (ISS) since 2017. We use the constituent data assimilation capabilities of NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to demonstrate that the up to 30 SAGE III/ISS profiles each day provide a useful constraint on SWV over the observed midlatitudes and tropics. We conclude that assimilating SAGE III/ISS SWV into GEOS can continue the SWV climate data record of Aura MLS.

The mainstream media and popular science platforms are rife with misunderstandings about what a “polar vortex” is. The term most aptly describes the stratospheric polar vortex, a single feature dominating the cool-season circulation at ∼15–50 km altitude. Regional upper tropospheric jet stream variations dominate the tropospheric circulation, which is not well-described by the idea of a polar vortex; indeed, there is no single consistent definition of a tropospheric polar vortex in the literature. Stratospheric polar vortex disturbances profoundly influence extreme weather events such as cold air outbreaks (CAO). How the stratospheric polar vortex affects the tropospheric jets, local excursions of which drive CAOs, is not yet fully understood. The most public-facing parts of publications describing research on this topic are sometimes unclear about how the “polar vortex” is defined; greater clarity could help improve communications both within the community and with non-specialist audiences.

Understanding lowermost stratosphere (LMS) ozone variability is an important topic in the trends and climate assessment communities because of feedbacks among changing temperature, dynamics and ozone. LMS evaluations are usually based on satellite observations. Free tropospheric (FT) ozone assessments typically rely on profiles from commercial aircraft. Ozonesonde measurements constitute an independent dataset encompassing both LMS and FT. We used Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) data (5.8°N to 14°S) from 1998-2019 in the Goddard Multiple Linear Regression model to analyze monthly mean FT and LMS ozone changes across five well-distributed tropical sites. Our findings: (1) both FT (5-15 km) and LMS (15-20 km) ozone trends show marked seasonal variability. (2) All stations exhibit FT ozone increases in February-May (up to 15%/decade) when the frequency of convectively-driven waves have changed. (3) After May, monthly ozone changes are both positive and negative, leading to mean trends of +(1-4)%/decade, depending on station. (4) LMS ozone losses reach (4-9)%/decade mid-year, correlating with an increase in TH as derived from SHADOZ radiosonde data. (5) When the upper FT and LMS are defined by tropopause-relative coordinates, the LMS ozone trends all become insignificant. Thus, the 20-year decline in tropical LMS ozone reported in recent satellite-based studies likely signifies a perturbed tropopause rather than chemical depletion. The SHADOZ-derived ozone changes highlight regional and seasonal variability across the tropics and define a new reference for evaluating changes derived from models and satellite products over the 1998 to 2019 period.

MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (M2-SCREAM) is a new reanalysis of stratospheric ozone, water vapor, hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitric acid (HNO3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) between 2004 and the present (with a latency of several months). The assimilated fields are provided at a 50-km horizontal resolution and at a three-hourly frequency. M2-SCREAM assimilates version 4.2 Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) profiles of the five constituents alongside total ozone column from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Dynamics and tropospheric water vapor are constrained by the MERRA-2 reanalysis. The assimilated species are in excellent agreement with the MLS observations, except for HNO3 in polar night, where data are not assimilated. Comparisons against independent observations show that the reanalysis realistically captures the spatial and temporal variability of all the assimilated constituents. In particular, the standard deviations of the differences between M2-SCREAM and constituent mixing ratio data from The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer are much smaller than the standard deviations of the measured constituents. Evaluation of the reanalysis against aircraft data and balloon-borne frost point hygrometers indicates a faithful representation of small-scale structures in the assimilated water vapor, HNO3 and ozone fields near the tropopause. Comparisons with independent observations and a process-based analysis of the consistency of the assimilated constituent fields with the MERRA-2 dynamics and with large-scale stratospheric processes demonstrate the utility of M2-SCREAM for scientific studies of chemical and transport variability on time scales ranging from hours to decades. Analysis uncertainties and guidelines for data usage are provided.

This paper introduces the special collection in Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020. Papers in this collection show that the 2019/2020 stratospheric polar vortex was the strongest, most persistent, and coldest on record in the Arctic. The unprecedented Arctic chemical processing and ozone loss in spring 2020 has been studied using numerous satellite and ground-based datasets and chemistry-transport models. Quantitative estimates of chemical loss are broadly consistent among the studies and show profile loss of about the same magnitude as in the Arctic in 2011, but with most loss at lower altitudes; column loss was comparable to or larger than that in 2011. Several papers show evidence of dynamical coupling from the mesosphere down to the surface. Studies of tropospheric influence and impacts link the exceptionally strong vortex to reflection of upward propagating waves, and show coupling to tropospheric anomalies including extreme heat, precipitation, windstorms, and marine cold air outbreaks. Predictability of the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 and related predictability of surface conditions are explored. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 highlights the extreme interannual variability in the Arctic winter/spring stratosphere and the far-reaching consequences of such extremes.

In this study, we present evaluation of version 3 ozone products derived from the DSCOVR EPIC instrument. EPIC’s total and tropospheric ozone columns have been compared with correlative satellite and ground-based measurements at time scales from daily averages to monthly means. We found that the agreement improves if we only accept retrievals derived from the EPIC 317 nm triplet and limit solar zenith and satellite looking angles to 70°. With such filtering in place, the comparisons of EPIC total columns with correlative satellite and ground-based data show mean differences within ±5-7 DU (or 1.5-2.5%). The biases with OMI and OMPS NM tend to be mostly negative in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), while there are no clear latitudinal patterns in ground-based comparisons. Evaluation of the EPIC ozone time series at different ground-based stations with the correlative ground-based Brewer and Pandora instruments and ozonesondes demonstrated good consistency in capturing ozone variations at daily, weekly and monthly scales with a persistently high correlation (r2>0.9) for total and tropospheric columns. We examined the quality of EPIC tropospheric ozone columns by comparing with ozonesondes at 12 stations and found that differences in tropospheric column ozone are within ±2.5 DU (or ~±10%) after removing a constant 3 DU offset at all stations between EPIC and sondes. The analysis of the time series of zonally averaged EPIC tropospheric ozone revealed a statistically significant drop of ~2-4 DU (~5-10%) over the entire NH in spring and summer of 2020, which is partially related to the unprecedented Arctic stratospheric ozone losses in winter-spring 2019/2020 and reductions in ozone precursor pollutants due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The exceptionally strong and long-lived Arctic stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 resulted in large transport anomalies throughout the fall-winter-spring period from vortex development to breakup. These anomalies are studied using Aura MLS long-lived trace gas data for N2O, H2O,and CO, ACE-FTS CH4 , and meteorological and trace gas fields from reanalyses. Strongest anomalies are seen throughout the winter in the lower through middle stratosphere (from about 500K through 700K), with record low (high) departures from climatology in N2O and CH4 (H2O). CO also shows extreme high anomalies in midwinter through spring down to about 550K. Examination of descent rates, vortex confinement, and trace gas distributions in the preceding months indicates that the early-winter anomalies in N2O and H2O arose primarily from entrainment of air with already-anomalous values (which likely resulted from transport linked to an early January sudden stratospheric warming the previous winter during a favorable quasi-biennial oscillation phase) into the vortex as it developed in fall 2019 followed by descent of those anomalies to lower levels within the vortex. Trace gas anomalies in midwinter through the late vortex breakup in spring 2020 arose primarily from inhibition of mixing between vortex and extravortex air because of the exceptionally strong and persistent vortex. Persistent strong N2O and H2O gradients across the vortex edge demonstrate that air within the vortex and its remnants remained very strongly confined through late April (mid-May) in the middle (lower) stratosphere.

The 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected a record amount of water directly into the stratosphere. This study attempts to quantify this impact on the temperature, as well as the subsequent changes to the stratospheric circulation, during the months following the eruption based on reanalysis fields. The extreme nature of the temperature, wind, and circulation changes are tracked through comparisons of the first six months of 2022 with the past 42 years. Examination of the data assimilation process shows that at 20 hPa the thermal observations are forcing temperatures to cool significantly, compensating for the absence of the excess stratospheric moisture in the model used for the reanalysis, resulting in unusually low temperatures. In response to this cooling the atmosphere adjusts by creating strong westerly winds above the temperature anomaly and large changes to the downward and poleward mean meridional circulation.

A moments/area study of meteorological reanalyses (focusing on MERRA-2, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) allows a novel investigation of the climatology of and interannual variability and trends in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA). The climatological ASMA is nearly elliptical, with its major axis aligned along its centroid latitude and an aspect ratio of ∼5–8. The ASMA centroid shifts northward with height, northward and westward during development, and in the opposite direction as it weakens. ASMA position and seasonal evolution generally agree among the reanalyses, except that MERRA-2 shows over 40% larger area at 350 K. No evidence of climatological bimodality is seen in the ASMA, consistent with previous studies using modern reanalyses. ASMA moments trends are mostly neither statistically significant nor consistent among reanalyses, but area and duration increase significantly over 1979–2018, and over 1958–2018 in JRA-55; JRA-55 trends are largest for 1979–2018, suggesting that reanalysis trends may have accelerated in recent decades. ASMA centroid latitude is significantly negatively (positively) correlated with subtropical jet core latitude (altitude), and significantly negatively correlated with concurrent ENSO. Other ASMA moments and area are not strongly correlated with concurrent ENSO, but ASMA area is significantly positively correlated with ENSO two months previously. Significant (negative) correlations of ASMA area with QBO are seen only during June at 370, 390, and 410 K. These results provide a unique and comprehensive view of the structure and evolution of the ASMA and introduce new tools that can be used to further explore ASMA characteristics and impacts.

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) provides recent estimates and five-day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public in near-real time. To do this, the GEOS Earth system model is coupled with the GEOS-Chem tropospheric-stratospheric unified chemistry extension (UCX) to represent composition from the surface to the top of the GEOS atmosphere (0.01 hPa). The GEOS-CF system is described, including updates made to the GEOS-Chem UCX mechanism within GEOS-CF for improved representation of stratospheric chemistry. Comparisons are made against balloon, lidar and satellite observations for stratospheric composition, including measurements of ozone (O3) and important nitrogen and chlorine species related to stratospheric O3 recovery. The GEOS-CF nudges the stratospheric O3 towards the GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS FP) assimilated O3 product; as a result the stratospheric O3 in the GEOS-CF historical estimate agrees well with observations. During abnormal dynamical and chemical environments such as the 2020 polar vortexes, the GEOS-CF O3 forecasts are more realistic than GEOS FP O3 forecasts because of the inclusion of the complex GEOS-Chem UCX chemistry. Overall, the spatial pattern of the GEOS-CF simulated concentrations of stratospheric composition agrees well with satellite observations. However, there are notable biases – such as low NOx and HNO3 in the polar regions and generally low HCl throughout the stratosphere – and future improvements to the chemistry mechanism and emissions are discussed. GEOS-CF is a new tool for the research community and instrument teams observing trace gases in the stratosphere and troposphere, providing near-real-time three-dimensional gridded information on atmospheric composition.