NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0:
Stratospheric composition
Abstract
The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast
(GEOS-CF) provides recent estimates and five-day forecasts of
atmospheric composition to the public in near-real time. To do this, the
GEOS Earth system model is coupled with the GEOS-Chem
tropospheric-stratospheric unified chemistry extension (UCX) to
represent composition from the surface to the top of the GEOS atmosphere
(0.01 hPa). The GEOS-CF system is described, including updates made to
the GEOS-Chem UCX mechanism within GEOS-CF for improved representation
of stratospheric chemistry. Comparisons are made against balloon, lidar
and satellite observations for stratospheric composition, including
measurements of ozone (O3) and important nitrogen and
chlorine species related to stratospheric O3 recovery.
The GEOS-CF nudges the stratospheric O3 towards the GEOS
Forward Processing (GEOS FP) assimilated O3 product; as a result the
stratospheric O3 in the GEOS-CF historical estimate
agrees well with observations. During abnormal dynamical and chemical
environments such as the 2020 polar vortexes, the GEOS-CF
O3 forecasts are more realistic than GEOS FP
O3 forecasts because of the inclusion of the complex
GEOS-Chem UCX chemistry. Overall, the spatial pattern of the GEOS-CF
simulated concentrations of stratospheric composition agrees well with
satellite observations. However, there are notable biases – such as low
NOx and HNO3 in the polar regions and
generally low HCl throughout the stratosphere – and future improvements
to the chemistry mechanism and emissions are discussed. GEOS-CF is a new
tool for the research community and instrument teams observing trace
gases in the stratosphere and troposphere, providing near-real-time
three-dimensional gridded information on atmospheric composition.