A Moments View of Climatology and Variability of the Asian Summer
Monsoon Anticyclone
Abstract
A moments/area study of meteorological reanalyses (focusing on MERRA-2,
ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) allows a novel investigation of the climatology
of and interannual variability and trends in the Asian summer monsoon
anticyclone (ASMA). The climatological ASMA is nearly elliptical, with
its major axis aligned along its centroid latitude and an aspect ratio
of ∼5–8. The ASMA centroid shifts northward with height, northward and
westward during development, and in the opposite direction as it
weakens. ASMA position and seasonal evolution generally agree among the
reanalyses, except that MERRA-2 shows over 40% larger area at 350 K. No
evidence of climatological bimodality is seen in the ASMA, consistent
with previous studies using modern reanalyses. ASMA moments trends are
mostly neither statistically significant nor consistent among
reanalyses, but area and duration increase significantly over
1979–2018, and over 1958–2018 in JRA-55; JRA-55 trends are largest for
1979–2018, suggesting that reanalysis trends may have accelerated in
recent decades. ASMA centroid latitude is significantly negatively
(positively) correlated with subtropical jet core latitude (altitude),
and significantly negatively correlated with concurrent ENSO. Other ASMA
moments and area are not strongly correlated with concurrent ENSO, but
ASMA area is significantly positively correlated with ENSO two months
previously. Significant (negative) correlations of ASMA area with QBO
are seen only during June at 370, 390, and 410 K. These results provide
a unique and comprehensive view of the structure and evolution of the
ASMA and introduce new tools that can be used to further explore ASMA
characteristics and impacts.