Effective adaptation to climate change requires detailed, tangible information about its impacts. This paper presents a novel simulation framework that combines storyline approaches based on spectral nudging with emerging kilometre-scale global climate modelling capabilities using the IFS-FESOM model. This approach allows for reconstructing recent extreme events and their potential evolution under different climate conditions while maintaining high-resolution local details. We demonstrate the system’s ability to reproduce observed variability on daily and longer timescales during the 2017–2023 period, particularly in the extratropics, and evaluate its performance using high-quality observations, including data from the MOSAiC expedition. To showcase the potential of this framework, we focus on two recent extreme events in Europe: the July 2019 heatwave and the July 2021 Ahrtal flooding. These examples highlight how kilometre-scale simulations can provide more granular, localized insights into climate change impacts, improving risk assessment and adaptation planning. This work, conducted as part of the European Union’s Destination Earth initiative, demonstrates how global, high-resolution simulations can be harnessed to support the development of digital twins of the Earth system, advancing both climate science and practical decision-making.

The impact of climate change on the intensity of mid-latitude cold air outbreaks is a debated topic due to uncertainty associated with internal atmospheric dynamics. Here, we employ an event-based storyline approach in which the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is nudged to reanalysis data at different global warming levels based on historical and high-emission scenario simulations. We thereby quantify the thermodynamic climate-change effects of pre-industrial, 2ºC and 4ºC warmer climates compared to present-day climate for three cold surges in East Asia during the winter 2020/21. The strongest warming occurs over northeast Asia, reaching up to +12ºC in a +4ºC warmer climate and caused by the advection of less cold air from winter ice-free regions in the Arctic, where the change of surface air temperature exceeds +20ºC. In contrast, over southern China, a moderate cooling is present from pre-industrial to present-day climates, due to the observed and expected increase in aerosol concentration, which peaks by the mid-21st century and alters the radiative balances. This cooling effect is likely to persist well into a +2ºC-warmer climate; however, it may become undetectable at the end of the 21st century (+4ºC warming). In summary, our findings underscore the important thermodynamic impact associated with Arctic amplification and cooling effect of aerosol-induced changes in the radiation budget on East Asian cold extremes.

The Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM) participates for the first time in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), CMIP6. The sea ice-ocean component, FESOM, runs on an unstructured mesh with horizontal resolutions ranging from 8 to 80 km. FESOM is coupled to the Max-Planck-Institute atmospheric model ECHAM 6.3 at a horizontal resolution of about 100 km. Using objective performance indices, it is shown that AWI-CM performs better than the average of CMIP5 models. AWI-CM shows an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.2°C, which is similar to the CMIP5 average, and a transient climate response of 2.1°C which is slightly higher than the CMIP5 average. The negative trend of Arctic sea ice extent in September over the past 30 years is 20-30% weaker in our simulations compared to observations. With the strongest emission scenario, the AMOC decreases by 25% until the end of the century which is less than the CMIP5 average of 40%. Patterns and even magnitude of simulated temperature and precipitation changes at the end of this century compared to present-day climate under the strong emission scenario SSP585 are similar to the multi-model CMIP5 mean. The simulations show a 11°C warming north of the Barents Sea and around 2 to 3°C over most parts of the ocean as well as a wetting of the Arctic, subpolar, tropical and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, in the northern mid-latitudes in boreal summer and autumn as well as in the southern mid-latitudes a more zonal atmospheric flow is projected throughout the year.

Extreme weather events are triggered by atmospheric circulation patterns and shaped by slower components, including soil moisture and sea-surface temperature, and by the background climate. This separation of factors is exploited by the storyline approach where an atmosphere model is nudged toward the observed dynamics using different climate boundary conditions to explore their influence. The storyline approach disregards rather uncertain climatic changes in the frequency and intensity of dynamical conditions, but focuses on the thermodynamic influence of climate on extreme events. Here we demonstrate an advanced storyline approach that employs a coupled climate model (AWI-CM-1-1-MR) where the large-scale free-troposphere dynamics are nudged toward ERA5 data. Five-member ensembles are run for present-day (2017–2019), pre-industrial, +2K, and +4K climates branching off from CMIP6 historical and scenario simulations of the same model. In contrast to previous studies, which employed atmosphere-only models, feedbacks between extreme events and the ocean and sea-ice state, and the dependence of such feedbacks on the climate, are consistently simulated. Our setup is capable of reproducing observed anomalies of relevant unconstrained parameters, including near-surface temperature, cloud cover, soil moisture, sea-surface temperature, and sea-ice concentration. Focusing on the July 2019 European heatwave, we find that the strongest warming amplification expands from southern to central Europe over the course of the 21st century. The warming reaches up to 10 K in the 4K warmer climate, suggesting that an analogous event would entail peak temperatures around 50 ºC in central Europe.

Substantial changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean in the last decades. Not only sea ice has retreated significantly, but also the ocean at mid-depth showed a warming tendency. By using simulations we identified a mechanism that intensifies the upward trend in ocean heat supply to the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait. The reduction in sea ice export through Fram Strait induced by Arctic sea ice decline increases the salinity in the Greenland Sea, which lowers the sea surface height and strengthens the cyclonic gyre circulation in the Nordic Seas. The Atlantic Water (AW) volume transport to the Nordics Seas and Arctic Ocean is consequently strengthened. This enhances the warming trend of the Arctic AW layer, potentially contributing to the “Atlantification” of the Eurasian Basin. Therefore, the Nordic Seas can play the role of a switchyard for the Arctic sea ice decline to influence the Arctic heat budget at mid-depth.

We examine the historical and projected hydrography in the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in 23 climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The comparison between historical simulations and observational climatology shows that the simulated Atlantic Water (AW) layer is too deep and too thick among the majority of the models and in the multi-model mean (MMM). Moreover, the halocline is too fresh in the MMM. These issues indicate that there is no visible improvement in the representation of Arctic hydrography in the CMIP6 compared to the CMIP5. The climate projections reveal that the sub-Arctic seas are outstanding warming hotspots, supplying a strong warming trend in the Arctic AW layer. The MMM temperature increase averaged in the upper 700 m till the end of the 21st century in the Arctic Ocean is about 40% and 60% higher than the global mean in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Comparing the AW temperature in the present day with its future change among the models shows that the temperature climate change signals are not sensitive to the model biases in the present-day simulations. The upper-ocean salinity is projected to become fresher in the Arctic deep basin in the MMM. However, the salinity spread is rather large and the tendency toward stronger upper ocean stratification in the MMM is not shared among all the models. The identified hydrography biases and spread call for a collective effort for systematic improvements of coupled model simulations.

Using the depth (z) and density (ϱ) frameworks, we analyze local contributions to AMOC variability in a 900-year simulation with the AWI climate model. Both frameworks reveal a consistent interdecadal variability, however the correlation between their maxima deteriorates on year-to-year scales. We demonstrate the utility of analyzing the spatial patterns of sinking and diapycnal transformations through depth levels and isopycnals. The success of this analysis relies on the spatial binning of these maps which is especially crucial for the maps of vertical velocities which appear to be too noisy in the main regions of up- and downwelling because of stepwise bottom topography. Furthermore, we show that the AMOC responds to fast (annual or faster) fluctuations in atmospheric forcing associated with the NAO. This response is more obvious in the ϱ than in the z framework. In contrast, the link between AMOC deep water production south of Greenland is found for slower fluctuations and is consistent between the frameworks.

Many state-of-the-art climate models do not simulate the Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Ocean realistically enough to address the question of future Arctic Atlantification and its associated feedback. Biases concerning the AW layer are commonly related to insufficient resolution and exaggerated mixing in the ocean component as well as unrealistic Atlantic-Arctic Ocean exchange. Based on sensitivity experiments with FESOM1.4, the ocean-sea ice component of the global climate model AWI-CM1, we show that even if all impediments for simulating AW realistically are addressed in the ocean model, new biases in the AW layer develop after coupling to an atmosphere model. By replacing the wind forcing over the Arctic with winds from a coupled simulation we show that a common bias in the atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) gradient and its associated wind bias lead to differences in surface stress and Ekman transport. Fresh surface water gets redistributed leading to changes in steric height distribution. Those changes lead to a strengthening of the anticyclonic surface circulation in the Canadian Basin, so that the deep counterflow carrying warm AW gets reversed and a warm bias in the Canadian Basin develops. An underestimation of sea ice concentration can significantly amplify the induced ocean biases. The SLP and anticyclonic wind bias in the Nordic Seas weaken the cyclonic circulation leading to reduced AW transport into the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait but increased AW transport through the Barents Sea Opening. These effects together lead to a cold bias in the Eurasian Basin.

We examine the historical evolution and projected changes in the hydrography of the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in 23 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The comparison between historical simulations and an observational climatology shows that the simulated Atlantic Water (AW) layer is too deep and thick in the majority of models, including the multi-model mean (MMM). Moreover, the halocline is too fresh in the MMM. Overall our findings indicate that there is no obvious improvement in the representation of the Arctic hydrography in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. The climate change projections reveal that the sub-Arctic seas are outstanding warming hotspots, causing a strong warming trend in the Arctic AW layer. The MMM temperature increase averaged over the upper 700 m at the end of the 21st century is about 40\% and 60\% higher in the Arctic Ocean than the global mean in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Salinity in the upper few hundred meters is projected to decrease in the Arctic deep basin in the MMM. However, the spread in projected salinity changes is rather large and the tendency toward stronger upper 400 m ocean stratification in the MMM is not simulated by all the models. The identified biases and projection uncertainties call for a concerted effort for major improvements of coupled climate models.