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Global Storyline Simulations at the Kilometre-scale
  • +19
  • Amal John,
  • Sebastian Beyer,
  • Marylou Athanase,
  • Antonio Sánchez Benítez,
  • Helge Goessling,
  • Akil Hossain,
  • Matteo Nurisso,
  • Razvan Aguridan,
  • Miguel Andrés-Martínez,
  • Aina Gaya-Àvila,
  • Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela,
  • Philipp Geier,
  • Rohit Ghosh,
  • Ioan Hadade,
  • Nikolay V. Koldunov,
  • Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia,
  • Thomas Rackow,
  • Irina Sandu,
  • Dmitry Sidorenko,
  • Jan Streffing,
  • Emanuele Vitali,
  • Thomas Jung
Amal John
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Polar- und Meeresforschung

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Sebastian Beyer
Alfred Wegener Institute
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Marylou Athanase
Alfred-Wegener-Institute
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Antonio Sánchez Benítez
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Polar- und Meeresforschung
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Helge Goessling
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
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Akil Hossain
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Matteo Nurisso
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (CNR-ISAC), Turin, Italy
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Razvan Aguridan
Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain
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Miguel Andrés-Martínez
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Aina Gaya-Àvila
Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain
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Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Polar- und Meeresforschung
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Philipp Geier
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
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Rohit Ghosh
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Polar- und Meeresforschung
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Ioan Hadade
ECMWF
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Nikolay V. Koldunov
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia
ECMWF
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Thomas Rackow
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
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Irina Sandu
ECMWF
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Dmitry Sidorenko
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Jan Streffing
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Emanuele Vitali
CSC - IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland
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Thomas Jung
AWI
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Abstract

Effective adaptation to climate change requires detailed, tangible information about its impacts. This paper presents a novel simulation framework that combines storyline approaches based on spectral nudging with emerging kilometre-scale global climate modelling capabilities using the IFS-FESOM model. This approach allows for reconstructing recent extreme events and their potential evolution under different climate conditions while maintaining high-resolution local details. We demonstrate the system’s ability to reproduce observed variability on daily and longer timescales during the 2017–2023 period, particularly in the extratropics, and evaluate its performance using high-quality observations, including data from the MOSAiC expedition. To showcase the potential of this framework, we focus on two recent extreme events in Europe: the July 2019 heatwave and the July 2021 Ahrtal flooding. These examples highlight how kilometre-scale simulations can provide more granular, localized insights into climate change impacts, improving risk assessment and adaptation planning. This work, conducted as part of the European Union’s Destination Earth initiative, demonstrates how global, high-resolution simulations can be harnessed to support the development of digital twins of the Earth system, advancing both climate science and practical decision-making.
10 Nov 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
14 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive