Abstract
Effective adaptation to climate change requires detailed, tangible
information about its impacts. This paper presents a novel simulation
framework that combines storyline approaches based on spectral nudging
with emerging kilometre-scale global climate modelling capabilities
using the IFS-FESOM model. This approach allows for reconstructing
recent extreme events and their potential evolution under different
climate conditions while maintaining high-resolution local details. We
demonstrate the system’s ability to reproduce observed variability on
daily and longer timescales during the 2017–2023 period, particularly
in the extratropics, and evaluate its performance using high-quality
observations, including data from the MOSAiC expedition. To showcase the
potential of this framework, we focus on two recent extreme events in
Europe: the July 2019 heatwave and the July 2021 Ahrtal flooding. These
examples highlight how kilometre-scale simulations can provide more
granular, localized insights into climate change impacts, improving risk
assessment and adaptation planning. This work, conducted as part of the
European Union’s Destination Earth initiative, demonstrates how global,
high-resolution simulations can be harnessed to support the development
of digital twins of the Earth system, advancing both climate science and
practical decision-making.