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Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Historical and projected temperature and salinity in the deep basins
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  • Narges Khosravi,
  • Qiang Wang,
  • Nikolay V. Koldunov,
  • Claudia Hinrichs,
  • Tido Semmler,
  • S. Danilov,
  • Thomas Jung
Narges Khosravi
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Qiang Wang
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Nikolay V. Koldunov
Alfred Wegener Institute
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Claudia Hinrichs
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
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Tido Semmler
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
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S. Danilov
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Thomas Jung
AWI
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Abstract

We examine the historical and projected hydrography in the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in 23 climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The comparison between historical simulations and observational climatology shows that the simulated Atlantic Water (AW) layer is too deep and too thick among the majority of the models and in the multi-model mean (MMM). Moreover, the halocline is too fresh in the MMM. These issues indicate that there is no visible improvement in the representation of Arctic hydrography in the CMIP6 compared to the CMIP5. The climate projections reveal that the sub-Arctic seas are outstanding warming hotspots, supplying a strong warming trend in the Arctic AW layer. The MMM temperature increase averaged in the upper 700 m till the end of the 21st century in the Arctic Ocean is about 40% and 60% higher than the global mean in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Comparing the AW temperature in the present day with its future change among the models shows that the temperature climate change signals are not sensitive to the model biases in the present-day simulations. The upper-ocean salinity is projected to become fresher in the Arctic deep basin in the MMM. However, the salinity spread is rather large and the tendency toward stronger upper ocean stratification in the MMM is not shared among all the models. The identified hydrography biases and spread call for a collective effort for systematic improvements of coupled model simulations.