Monthly global sea-air CO2 flux estimates from 1998-2020 are produced by extrapolation of surface water fugacity of CO2 (fCO2w) observations using an Extra-trees (ET) machine learning technique. This new product (AOML_ET) is one of the eleven observation-based submissions to the second REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) effort. The target variable fCO2w is derived using the predictor variables including date, location, sea surface temperature, mixed layer depth, and chlorophyll-a. A monthly resolved sea-air CO2 flux product on a 1˚ by 1˚ grid is created from this fCO2w product using a bulk flux formulation. Average global sea-air CO2 fluxes from 1998-2020 are -1.7 Pg C yr-1 with a trend of 0.9 Pg C decade-1. The sensitivity to omitting mixed layer depth or chlorophyll-a as predictors is small but changing the target variable from fCO2w to air-water fCO2 difference has a large effect, yielding an average flux of -3.6 Pg C yr-1 and a trend of 0.5 Pg C decade-1. Substituting a spatially resolved marine air CO2 mole fraction product for the commonly used zonally invariant marine boundary layer CO2 product yield greater influx and less outgassing in the Eastern coastal regions of North America and Northern Asia but with no effect on the global fluxes. A comparison of AOML_ET for 2010 with an updated climatology following the methods of Takahashi et al. (2009), that extrapolates the surface CO2 values without predictors, shows overall agreement in global patterns and magnitude.

Pinatubo erupted during the first decadal survey of ocean biogeochemistry, embedding its climate fingerprint into foundational ocean biogeochemical observations and complicating the interpretation of long-term biogeochemical change. Here, we quantify the influence of the Pinatubo climate perturbation on externally forced decadal and multi-decadal changes in key ocean biogeochemical quantities using a large ensemble simulation of the Community Earth System Model designed to isolate the effects of Pinatubo, which cleanly captures the ocean biogeochemical response to the eruption. We find increased uptake of apparent oxygen utilization and preindustrial carbon over 1993-2003. Nearly 100\% of the forced response in these quantities are attributable to Pinatubo. The eruption caused enhanced ventilation of the North Atlantic, as evidenced by deep ocean chlorofluorocarbon changes that appear 10-15 years after the eruption. Our results help contextualize observed change and contribute to improved constraints on uncertainty in the global carbon budget and ocean deoxygenation.

Reducing uncertainty in the global carbon budget requires better quantification of ocean CO2 uptake and its temporal variability. Several methodologies for reconstructing air-sea CO2 exchange from sparse pCO2 observations indicate larger decadal variability than estimated using ocean models. We develop a new application of multiple Large Ensemble Earth system models to assess these reconstructions’ ability to estimate spatiotemporal variability. With our Large Ensemble Testbed, pCO2 fields from 25 ensemble members each of four independent Earth system models are subsampled as the observations and the reconstruction is performed as it would be with real- world observations. The power of a testbed is that the perfect reconstruction is known for each of the 100 original model fields; thus, reconstruction skill can be comprehensively assessed. We find that a commonly used neural-network approach can skillfully reconstruct air-sea CO2 fluxes when and where it is trained with sufficient data. Flux bias is low for the global mean and Northern Hemisphere, but can be regionally high in the Southern Hemisphere. The phase and amplitude of the seasonal cycle are accurately reconstructed outside of the tropics, but longer-term variations are reconstructed with only moderate skill. For Southern Ocean decadal variability, insufficient sampling leads to a 39% [15%:58%, interquartile range] overestimation of amplitude, and phasing is only moderately correlated with known truth (r=0.54 [0.46:0.63]). Globally, the amplitude of decadal variability is overestimated by 21% [3%:34%]. Machine learning, when supplied with sufficient data, can skillfully reconstruct ocean properties. However, data sparsity remains a fundamental limitation to quantification of decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink.

We use a statistical emulation technique to construct synthetic ensembles of global and regional sea-air carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from four observation-based products over 1985-2014. Much like ensembles of Earth system models that are constructed by perturbing their initial conditions, our synthetic ensemble members exhibit different phasing of internal variability and a common externally forced signal. Our synthetic ensembles illustrate an important role for internal variability in the temporal evolution of global and regional CO2 flux and produce a wide range of possible trends over 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. We assume a specific externally forced signal and calculate the likelihood of the observed trend given the distribution of synthetic trends during these two periods. Over the decade 1990-1999, three of the four observation-based products exhibit small negative trends in globally integrated sea-air CO2 flux (i.e., enhanced ocean CO2 absorption with time) that are highly probable (44-72% chance of occurrence) in their respective synthetic trend distributions. Over the decade 2000-2009, however, three of the four products show large negative trends in globally integrated sea-air CO2 flux that are somewhat improbable (17-19% chance of occurrence). Our synthetic ensembles suggest that the largest observation-based positive trends in global and Southern Ocean CO2 flux over 1990-1999 and the largest negative trends over 2000-2009 are somewhat improbable (<30% chance of occurrence). Our approach provides a new understanding of the role of internal and external processes in driving sea-air CO2 flux variability.

The ocean has absorbed the equivalent of 39% of industrial-age fossil carbon emissions, significantly modulating the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 and its associated impacts on climate. Despite the importance of the ocean carbon sink to climate, our understanding of the causes of its interannual-to-decadal variability remains limited. This hinders our ability to attribute its past behavior and project its future. A key period of interest is the 1990s, when the ocean carbon sink did not grow as expected. Previous explanations of this behavior have focused on variability internal to the ocean or associated with coupled atmosphere/ocean modes. Here, we use an idealized upper ocean box model to illustrate that two external forcings are sufficient to explain the pattern and magnitude of sink variability since the mid-1980s. First, the global-scale reduction in the decadal-average ocean carbon sink in the 1990s is attributable to the slowed growth rate of atmospheric pCO2. The acceleration of atmospheric pCO2 growth after 2001 drove recovery of the sink. Second, the global sea surface temperature response to the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo explains the timing of the global sink within the 1990s. These results are consistent with previous experiments using ocean hindcast models with and without forcing from variable atmospheric pCO2 and climate variability. The fact that variability in the growth rate of atmospheric pCO2 directly imprints on the ocean sink implies that there will be an immediate reduction in ocean carbon uptake as atmospheric pCO2 responds to cuts in anthropogenic emissions.

We compare air-sea CO2 exchange in an ensemble of global ocean hindcast models to a suite of observation-based products for 1990-2018. Individual products agree closely for regional fluxes, but individual models vary widely in their regional estimates. Despite their regional divergence, individual models estimate similar global mean fluxes, indicating that significant regional compensation occurs to balance in the global integral. Models diverge most strongly from the observed mean flux in the northern and southern subtropics, despite strong agreement in seasonality. In the Southern Ocean, models estimate a wide range of both mean and seasonality. The ensemble of observation-based products can be used to select the models that best represent the regionally-resolved mean state of air-sea CO2 exchange. Three models are within 3σ of the observed estimates in all regions. With this selected model ensemble, the global mean flux is slightly reduced and its uncertainty is reduced by 35%.

Large volcanic eruptions drive significant climate perturbations through major anomalies in radiative fluxes and the resulting widespread cooling of the surface and upper ocean. Recent studies suggest that these eruptions also drive important variability in air-sea carbon and oxygen fluxes. By simulating the Earth system using two initial-condition large ensembles, with and without the aerosol forcing associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in June 1991, we isolate the impact of this event on ocean physical and biogeochemical properties. The Mt. Pinatubo eruption generated significant anomalies in surface fluxes and the ocean interior inventories of heat, oxygen, and carbon. Pinatubo-driven changes persist for multiple years in the upper ocean and permanently modify the ocean’s heat, oxygen, and carbon inventories. Positive anomalies in oxygen concentrations emerge immediately post-eruption and penetrate into the deep ocean. In contrast, carbon anomalies intensify in the upper ocean over several years post-eruption, and are largely confined to the upper 150 m. In the tropics and northern high latitudes, the change in oxygen is dominated by surface cooling and subsequent ventilation to mid-depths, while the carbon anomaly is associated with solubility changes and eruption-generated ENSO variability. Our results indicate that Pinatubo does not substantially impact oxygen or carbon in the Southern Ocean; forced signals do not emerge from the large internal variability in this region.