Abstract
The ocean has absorbed the equivalent of 39% of industrial-age fossil
carbon emissions, significantly modulating the growth rate of
atmospheric CO2 and its associated impacts on climate. Despite the
importance of the ocean carbon sink to climate, our understanding of the
causes of its interannual-to-decadal variability remains limited. This
hinders our ability to attribute its past behavior and project its
future. A key period of interest is the 1990s, when the ocean carbon
sink did not grow as expected. Previous explanations of this behavior
have focused on variability internal to the ocean or associated with
coupled atmosphere/ocean modes. Here, we use an idealized upper ocean
box model to illustrate that two external forcings are sufficient to
explain the pattern and magnitude of sink variability since the
mid-1980s. First, the global-scale reduction in the decadal-average
ocean carbon sink in the 1990s is attributable to the slowed growth rate
of atmospheric pCO2. The acceleration of atmospheric pCO2 growth after
2001 drove recovery of the sink. Second, the global sea surface
temperature response to the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo explains the
timing of the global sink within the 1990s. These results are consistent
with previous experiments using ocean hindcast models with and without
forcing from variable atmospheric pCO2 and climate variability. The fact
that variability in the growth rate of atmospheric pCO2 directly
imprints on the ocean sink implies that there will be an immediate
reduction in ocean carbon uptake as atmospheric pCO2 responds to cuts in
anthropogenic emissions.