Numerical modeling and data-worth analysis for characterizing the
architecture and dissolution rates of a multicomponent DNAPL source
Abstract
A numerical solute transport model was history matched to a
high-resolution monitoring dataset to characterize a multicomponent
source of nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) and evaluate the uncertainty
of estimated parameters. The dissolution of NAPL mass was simulated
using the SEAM3D solute transport model with spatially-varying NAPL
saturations and mass transfer rate coefficients, representing the
heterogenous architecture of the source zone. Source zone parameters
were simultaneously estimated using PEST from aqueous-phase
concentrations measured in a multilevel monitoring transect and from
mass recovery rates measured at extraction wells during a controlled
field experiment. Data-worth analyses, facilitated by PEST ancillary
software, linked maximum aqueous-phase concentrations of all compounds
to reductions in prior uncertainty of mass transfer coefficients. In
turn, transient concentrations of the most soluble NAPL fraction
constrained the source mass estimation. Accurately estimating the source
mass and reducing prior uncertainties was possible by removing
concentrations measured during early NAPL dissolution stages, identified
as prior-data conflicts using the iterative ensemble smoother
PESTPP-iES. Prior-based Monte Carlo analyses highlighted model
limitations for representing sub-grid-scale heterogeneity of source zone
architecture and NAPL dissolution, yet history-matching of final
dissolution stages measured at multilevel ports eliminated parameter
bias and produced long-term projections of source depletion with
multistage behavior. Including mass discharge constraints further
improved the accuracy of source mass estimation, complementing
multilevel monitoring constraints on the source architecture and mass
transfer coefficients