Abstract
Forecasting of hanging glacier instabilities remains challenging as
sensing technology focusing on the ice surface fail to detect englacial
damage leading to large-scale failure. Here we combine icequake cluster
analysis with coda wave interferometry constraining damage growth on
Switzerland’s Eiger hanging glacier before a 15,000m3 break-off event.
The method focuses on icequake migration within clusters rather than
previously proposed “event counting”. Results show that one cluster
originated from the glacier front and migrated by 13(+/- 4) m within
five weeks before the break-off event. The corresponding crevasse
extension separates unstable and stable ice masses. We use the measured
source displacement for damage parametrization and find a 90% agreement
between an analytical model based on damage mechanics and frontal flow
velocities measured with an interferometric radar. Our analysis provides
observational constraints for damage growth, which to date is primarily
a theoretical concept for modeling englacial fractures.