Robust uncertainty quantification of the volume of tsunami ionospheric
holes for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake: towards low-cost
satellite-based tsunami warning systems
Abstract
We develop a new method to analyze the total electron content (TEC)
depression in the ionosphere after a tsunami occurrence. We employ
Gaussian process regression to accurately estimate the TEC disturbance
every 30 s using satellite observations from the GNSS network, even over
regions without measurements. We face multiple challenges. First, the
impact of the acoustic wave generated by a tsunami onto TEC levels is
non-linear and anisotropic. Second, observation points are moving.
Nevertheless, our method always computes these volumes, along with
estimated uncertainties, when applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake,
even with random selections of only 5% of the 1,000 GPS Earth
Observation Network System receivers considered here over Japan. The
method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 minutes of the earthquake,
at high levels of confidence, even with a sparse receiver network.
Hence, it is potentially applicable worldwide using the existing GNSS
network.