Abstract
The NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory produces the Global Ensemble
Forecasting System (GEFS) which comprises 11 ensemble members (1 control
and 10 perturbation runs) for over a 36-year period (December 1984 to
present), with forecasts initialized every day for the next 16 days
(first 8-day forecasts obtained from a high-resolution grid and the next
8-day forecasts from a low-resolution grid). The system provides 36
variables related to a wide range of hydrometeorological processes. In
this study, we assess the predictability of precipitation within the
context of statistical downscaling using a minimum set of predictor
variables (precipitation and temperature). We use feedforward
backpropagation neural networks with a suite of training algorithms to
determine which variables (features) are of most relevance at different
forecast lead times. The outcome of this study will significantly
benefit short-term flood forecasting using GEFS data.