Jacob M. Steinberg

and 4 more

Rates of sea-level rise are increasing across the global ocean. Since $\sim 2008$, sea-level acceleration is particularly pronounced along the US Gulf of Mexico coastline. Here we use model solutions and observational data to identify the physical mechanisms responsible for enhanced rates of recent coastal sea-level rise in this region. Specifically, we quantify the effect of offshore subsurface ocean warming on coastal sea-level rise and its relationship to regional hypsometry. Using the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) Version 5 ocean state estimate, we establish that coastal sea-level changes are largely the result of changes in regional ocean mass, reflected in ocean bottom pressure, on interannual to decadal timescales. These coastal ocean bottom pressure changes reflect both net mass flux into and out of the Gulf, as well as internal mass redistribution within the Gulf, which can be understood as an isostatic ocean response to subsurface offshore warming. We test the relationships among coastal sea-level, ocean bottom pressure, and subsurface ocean warming predicted by the model using data from satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetery, tide gauges, and Argo floats. Our estimates of mass redistribution explain a significant fraction of coastal sea-level trends observed by tide gauges. For instance, at St. Petersburg, Florida, this mass redistribution accounts for $>$ 50\% of the coastal sea-level trend observed over the 2008-2017 decade. This study elucidates a physical mechanism whereby coastal sea-level responds to open-ocean subsurface warming and motivates future studies of this linkage in other regions.
Satellite observations are used to establish the dominant magnitudes, scales, and mechanisms of intraseasonal variability in ocean dynamic sea level (ζ) in the Persian Gulf over 2002-2015. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to altimetry data reveals a basin-wide, single-signed intraseasonal fluctuation that contributes importantly to ζ variance in the Persian Gulf at monthly to decadal timescales. An EOF analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations over the same period returns a similar large-scale mode of intraseasonal variability, suggesting that the basin-wide intraseasonal ζ variation has a predominantly barotropic nature. A linear barotropic theory is developed to interpret the data. The theory represents Persian-Gulf-average ζ () in terms of local freshwater flux, barometric pressure, and wind stress forcing, as well as ζ at the boundary in the Gulf of Oman. The theory is tested using a multiple linear regression with these freshwater flux, barometric pressure, wind stress, and boundary ζ quantities as input, and as output. The regression explains 70%+/-9% (95% confidence interval) of the intraseasonal variance. Numerical values of regression coefficients computed empirically from the data are consistent with theoretical expectations from first principles. Results point to a substantial non-isostatic response to surface loading. The Gulf of Oman ζ boundary condition shows lagged correlation with ζ upstream along the Indian Subcontinent, Maritime Continent, and equatorial Indian Ocean, suggesting a large-scale Indian-Ocean influence on intraseasonal variation mediated by coastal and equatorial waves, and hinting at potential predictability. This study highlights the value of GRACE for understanding sea level in an understudied marginal sea.
Identifying the causes for historical sea-level changes in coastal tide-gauge records is important for constraining oceanographic, geologic, and climatic processes. The Río de la Plata estuary in South America features the longest tide-gauge records in the South Atlantic. Despite the relevance of these data for large-scale circulation and climate studies, the mechanisms underlying relative sea-level changes in this region during the past century have not been firmly established. I study annual data from tide gauges in the Río de la Plata and stream gauges along the Río Paraná and Río Uruguay to establish relationships between river streamflow and sea level over 1931-2014. Regression analysis suggests that streamflow explains 59%+/-17% of the total sea-level variance at Buenos Aires, Argentina, and 28%+/-21% at Montevideo, Uruguay (95% confidence intervals). A longterm streamflow increase effected sea-level trends of 0.71+/-0.35 mm/yr at Buenos Aires and 0.48+/-0.38 mm/yr at Montevideo. More generally, sea level at Buenos Aires and Montevideo respectively rises by (7.3+/-1.8)x10^-6 m and (4.7+/-2.6)x10^-6 m per 1 m^3 s^-1 streamflow increase. These observational results are consistent with simple theories for the coastal sea-level response to streamflow forcing, suggesting a causal relationship between streamflow and sea level mediated by ocean dynamics. Findings advance understanding of local, regional, and global sea-level changes, clarify sea-level physics, inform future projections of coastal sea level and the interpretation of satellite data and proxy reconstructions, and highlight future research directions.