Robust weakening of the Gulf Stream during the past four decades
observed in the Florida Straits
Abstract
The Gulf Stream is a vital limb of the North Atlantic circulation that
influences regional climate, sea level, and hurricane activity. Given
the Gulf Stream’s relevance to weather and climate, many studies have
attempted to estimate trends in its volumetric transport from various
datasets, but results have been inconclusive, and no consensus has
emerged whether the current is weakening with climate change. Here we
use Bayesian analysis to jointly assimilate multiple datasets from the
Florida Straits to quantify uncertainty and change in Gulf Stream volume
transport since 1982. We find with virtual certainty (probability
$P>99\%$) that Gulf Stream volume
transport through the Florida Straits declined by $1.2
\pm 1.0$ Sv in the past 40 years (95\%
credible interval). This represents the first unequivocal evidence for a
recent multidecadal decline in this climate-relevant component of ocean
circulation.