Robert Pincus

and 11 more

Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, called the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models, and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line-by-line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. The clear-sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases to which the world has been subject is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a re-analysis of present-day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing with sampling errors of less than 0.01 \si{\watt\per\square\meter}. Six contributing line-by-line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 \si{\watt\per\square\meter} while even recently-developed parameterizations have typical errors four or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line-by-line models and that parameterization error will be readily resolved. Agreement among line-by-line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are roughly estimated, as are adjustments due to stratospheric temperature change. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest non-linearity.

Fiona M. O'Connor

and 5 more

The pre-industrial (Year 1850) to present-day (Year 2014) increase in methane from 808 to 1831 ppb leads to an effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.97±0.04 Wm‑2 in the United Kingdom’s Earth System Model, UKESM1. The direct methane contribution is 0.54±0.04 Wm‑2. It is better represented in UKESM1 than in its predecessor due to the inclusion of shortwave absorption, updates to the longwave spectral properties, and no interference from dust. An indirect ozone ERF of 0.13-0.20 Wm-2 is largely due to the radiative effect of the tropospheric ozone increase outweighing that of the stratospheric ozone decrease. An indirect water vapor ERF of 0.07±0.05/0.02±0.04 Wm‑2 is consistent with previous estimates based on the stratospherically-adjusted radiative forcing metric. The methane increase also leads to a cloud radiative effect of 0.12±0.02 Wm‑2 from aerosol-cloud interactions and thermodynamic adjustments. The aerosol-mediated contribution (0.28‑0.30 Wm‑2) arises because methane-driven oxidant changes alter the rate of new particle formation (-8 %), causing a change in the aerosol size distribution towards fewer larger particles. There is a resulting decrease in cloud droplet number concentration and an increase in cloud droplet effective radius. There are additional shortwave and longwave contributions of 0.23 and ‑0.35 Wm-2 to the cloud forcing which are dynamically-driven. They arise from radiative heating and stabilization of the upper troposphere, resulting in a reduction in global cloud cover and convection. These results highlight the importance of chemistry-aerosol-cloud interactions and dynamical adjustments in climate forcing and can explain some of the diversity in multi-model estimates of methane forcing.