Abstract
Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere
lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value
of this change, called the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies
across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of
clouds, humidity, and temperature across models, and partly due to
errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This
paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model
Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with
line-by-line models to identify parameterization error in the
representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. The
clear-sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases to which the world
has been subject is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from
a re-analysis of present-day conditions, that represent the global
annual mean forcing with sampling errors of less than 0.01
\si{\watt\per\square\meter}.
Six contributing line-by-line models agree in their estimate of this
forcing to within 0.025
\si{\watt\per\square\meter}
while even recently-developed parameterizations have typical errors four
or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true
differences among line-by-line models and that parameterization error
will be readily resolved. Agreement among line-by-line models is better
in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the
water vapor vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon
dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative
forcing are roughly estimated, as are adjustments due to stratospheric
temperature change. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon
dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest
non-linearity.