Meng Luo

and 5 more

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regionally LULCC projections by integrated assessment models. The uncertainty associated with different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on the impacts on the carbon cycle over ABoVE domain. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and Demeter model to generate 0.25-degree gridded LULCC data with the same input of regional LULCC projections from Global Change Analysis Model, under SSP126 and SSP585. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive CLM5 to prognostically simulate terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between two LULCC datasets under both SSP126 and SSP585. The LULCC differences further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected carbon cycle variables, which are more than 79% of the contributions of LULCC in 2100. Besides, the difference for LULCC and carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

Dalei Hao

and 7 more

Sub-grid topographic heterogeneity has large impacts on surface energy balance and land-atmosphere interactions. However, the impacts of representing sub-grid topographic effects in land surface models (LSMs) on surface energy balance and boundary conditions remain unclear. This study analyzed and evaluated the impacts of sub-grid topographic representations on surface energy balance, turbulent heat flux and scalar (co-)variances in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Three sub-grid topographic representations in ELM were compared: (1) the default sub-grid structure (D), (2) the recently developed sub-grid topographic structure (T), and (3) high spatial resolution (1KM). Additionally, two different solar radiation schemes in ELM were compared: (1) the default plane-parallel radiative transfer scheme (PP) and (2) the parameterization scheme (TOP) that accounts for sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. A series of simulations with the three grid structures (D, T and 1KM) and two treatments of solar radiation (TOP and PP) were carried out in the Sierra Nevada, California. There are significant differences between TOP and PP in the 1-km simulated surface energy balance, but the differences in the mean values and standard deviations become small when aggregated to the grid-scale (i.e., 0.5°). The T configuration better mimics the 1KM simulations than the D configuration, and better captures the sub-grid topographic effects on surface energy balance as well as surface boundary conditions. These results underline the importance of representing sub-grid topographic heterogeneities in LSMs and motivate future research to understand the sub-grid topographic effects on land-atmosphere interactions over mountain areas.