Zhixiong Chen

and 6 more

The close connection between the total lightning flash rate and storm updraft has been well recognized. In this study, we assessed the beneļ¬t of such a relationship in convective-scale data assimilation (DA) for model initialization. A lightning DA scheme to update model kinematic states was developed in the Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation (WRFDA) three-dimensional variational (3DVar) system. This scheme combines total lightning observations with model-based prescribed vertical velocity profiles to retrieve kinematic information useful to DA. With the availability of space-borne lightning imagers in recent years, total lightning data observations from the Lightning Mapping Imager (LMI) on board the FY-4A geostationary satellite were assimilated in combination with radar DA. A detailed analysis of the impact of the lightning DA scheme on convective precipitation forecasting was conducted using a squall line case over Beijing on 13 July 2017. The results showed that the assimilation of LMI data further improves the analyses of dynamical conditions from assimilating radar radial winds. Although the microphysical states are identical due to the assimilation of reflectivity, updrafts directly form at lightning observation locations via lightning DA and hence improve the convective-scale dynamical balance. The quantitative verification of short-term convective forecasts indicated that the lightning DA adds value to current radar DA by improving the precipitation forecast skill. The new lightning DA scheme was further applied to a heavy rainfall case in 2018, and the results confirmed the effective and robust improvement in storm forecasting.