A method to update model kinematic states by assimilating
satellite-observed total lightning data to improve convective analysis
and forecasting
Abstract
The close connection between the total lightning flash rate and storm
updraft has been well recognized. In this study, we assessed the benefit
of such a relationship in convective-scale data assimilation (DA) for
model initialization. A lightning DA scheme to update model kinematic
states was developed in the Weather Research and Forecasting Data
Assimilation (WRFDA) three-dimensional variational (3DVar) system. This
scheme combines total lightning observations with model-based prescribed
vertical velocity profiles to retrieve kinematic information useful to
DA. With the availability of space-borne lightning imagers in recent
years, total lightning data observations from the Lightning Mapping
Imager (LMI) on board the FY-4A geostationary satellite were assimilated
in combination with radar DA. A detailed analysis of the impact of the
lightning DA scheme on convective precipitation forecasting was
conducted using a squall line case over Beijing on 13 July 2017. The
results showed that the assimilation of LMI data further improves the
analyses of dynamical conditions from assimilating radar radial winds.
Although the microphysical states are identical due to the assimilation
of reflectivity, updrafts directly form at lightning observation
locations via lightning DA and hence improve the convective-scale
dynamical balance. The quantitative verification of short-term
convective forecasts indicated that the lightning DA adds value to
current radar DA by improving the precipitation forecast skill. The new
lightning DA scheme was further applied to a heavy rainfall case in
2018, and the results confirmed the effective and robust improvement in
storm forecasting.