Fourier Reservoir Computing for data-driven prediction of multi-scale
coupled quasi-geostrophic dynamics
Abstract
Reservoir Computing (RC), a simplified form of recurrent neural network
, is composed with the Fourier Transform to produce data-driven
prediction of multi-scale coupled quasi-geostrophic flows. Experiments
are conducted using the Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model
(MAOOAM) [10], a coupled quasi-geostrophic model that includes a
2-layer atmosphere (fast dynamics) and 1-layer ocean (slow dynamics).
The Fourier Reservoir Computing (FRC) approach produces forecasts that
extend the skillful forecast horizon beyond a comparable RC model
trained on data in physical grid space. The FRC approach can be enhanced
by applying localization in physical space, which extends the skillful
forecast horizon further and facilitates practical application to
high-dimensional geophysical problems. Plain Language Summary The
science of predicting changes in weather and climate is typically
enabled using a combination of idealized physical models and instrument
measurements. Here, we offer a contribution as part of a growing
community that is attempting to advance the use of machine learning for
weather and climate prediction. We use a simplified coupled
atmosphere-ocean model to generate synthetic ‘observa-tions’, and show
that reliable forecast models can be generating using machine learning
applied to these observation data alone. We also provide an approach for
scaling this method for use in more realistic operational weather
prediction scenarios.