Torrential rainfall and rapid snowmelt in April 2017 caused deadly floods in northwestern Iran. An atmospheric river (AR), propagating across the Middle East and North Africa, was found responsible for this extreme event. The snowmelt was triggered by precipitation and warm advection associated with the AR. Total satellite-based rainfall for April 2017 was moderately below normal, suggesting that a heavy flood can happen during dry years. The AR was fed by moisture from the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Despite its adverse societal consequences, this event was beneficial to the recovery of the desiccating Lake Urmia. The impacts of this AR were not limited to flooding; it also facilitated dust transport to the region. This distinct characteristic of the ARs in the Middle East is attributed to major mineral dust sources located along their pathways. This event was reasonably predicted at 7-day lead time, crucially important for successful early warning systems.

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5, to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21st century. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

The Congo Basin stands out as a convective hotspot and plays a crucial role in the Earth’s climate system by modulating the atmospheric circulation and carbon emissions caused by biomass burning in its southern and northern bands. Climate variability in this region is a result of interactions among various features acting on different time-scales. This presentation provides an overview of our current understanding of such features that operate at regional (e.g., Walker-like cells) and global (e.g., ENSO) scales. The distinct spatial heterogeneity of the region with respect to interannual variability will be presented and compared with the spatial variability of annual and diurnal cycles. Differences in driving factors of these variabilities will be discussed. Some challenges, such as the lack of in-situ observations, that limit the climate analysis over the region will be addressed. Finally, several aspects of future research opportunities will be highlighted. This includes interactions between local atmospheric jets, waves, precipitation-producing systems, deforestation and biomass burning, as well as potential improvements in collecting ground-based meteorological data in the region.