On October 8, 2023 (UTC), unique earthquakes occurred in the Izu-Ogasawara Arc, Japan, in which the P- and S-phases were barely visible and only the T-phase was evident, followed by tsunamis that reached islands in the Izu-Ogasawara Arc and a wide area of the Pacific coast of southwest Japan. In the location where the T-phase source was estimated, there is the Sofu Seamount which was previously unrecognized as an active submarine volcano. A bathymetric survey of the seamount conducted one month after the event revealed characteristics of the seamount with a caldera and a central cone. Compared to the bathymetry in 1987, the topography in the caldera had changed significantly such as a crater forming in the central cone. This seamount is likely to be an active volcano. The topographic changes on the caldera-sized scale that occurred at the caldera can be explained as a source of the October tsunami.

Most conceptual models for how fluids and sediment influence slip behavior and uplift along subduction margins are poorly constrained by geophysical observations. Given the complexity of subduction systems, overcoming this gap in knowledge will require a systems-level approach which uses high quality geophysical constraints. We present wide-angle, onshore-offshore seismic data collected along the northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, from which P-wave velocities were calculated using active- and passive-sources. A gravity model and reflection profiles were also assembled to create a complete, ~400 km long transect which images the incoming plate, down going slab, overthrusting forearc, and backarc rift. Velocities and gravity modelling help to constrain the lithology of the forearc basement to ~20 km depth. Upper plate lower crustal velocities and reflectivity point to the presence of underplated sediments immediately above the lithospheric mantle nose, suggesting that underplated sediments are driving uplift of the forearc. Comparing these results to geophysical images from the southern Hikurangi margin, we suggest that the backarc rift influences along-strike changes in the compressional stresses experienced by the forearc, driving changes in bending stresses within the subducting slab.

Most conceptual models for how fluids and sediment influence slip behavior and uplift along subduction margins are poorly constrained by geophysical observations. Given the complexity of subduction systems, overcoming this gap in knowledge will require a systems-level approach which uses high quality geophysical constraints. We present wide-angle, onshore-offshore seismic data collected along the northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, from which P-wave velocities were calculated using active- and passive-sources. A gravity model and reflection profiles were also assembled to create a complete, ~400 km long transect which images the incoming plate, down going slab, overthrusting forearc, and backarc rift. Velocities and gravity modelling help to constrain the lithology of the forearc basement to ~20 km depth. Upper plate lower crustal velocities and reflectivity point to the presence of underplated sediments immediately above the lithospheric mantle nose, suggesting that underplated sediments are driving uplift of the forearc. Comparing these results to geophysical images from the southern Hikurangi margin, we suggest that the backarc rift influences along-strike changes in the compressional stresses experienced by the forearc, driving changes in bending stresses within the subducting slab.

A document by Paul Caesar M Flores. Click on the document to view its contents.

The giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) could be expected to induce an 8-class outer-rise earthquake at the Japan Trench. In order to assess the risk of tsunamis from outer-rise events, we carried out tsunami simulations using 33 simple rectangular fault models with 60 degrees dips based on geophysical studies of the Japan Trench. The largest tsunami resulting from these models, a fault 332 km long producing a 8.66 normal-faulting event, had a maximum height of 27.0 m. We tested variations of the predictions due to the uncertainties in the assumed parameters. Because seismic observations and surveys show that the dip angles of outer-rise faults range from 45 to 75 degrees, we calculated tsunamis from events on fault models with 45-75 degree dips. We tested a compound fault model with 75 degrees dip in the upper half and 45 degrees dip in the lower half. Rake angles were varied by plus-minus 15 degrees. We also tested models consisting of small subfaults with dimensions of about 60 km, models using other earthquake scaling laws, and models including dispersive tsunami effects. Predicted tsunami heights changed by 5-10% for dip angle changes, about 5-10% from considering tsunami dispersion, about 2% from rake angle changes, and about 1% from using the model with subfaults. The use of different earthquake scaling laws changed predicted tsunami heights by about 50% on average for the 33 fault models. We emphasize that the earthquake scaling law used in tsunami predictions for outer-rise earthquakes should be chosen with great care.

Seismic velocity structures have been estimated using ambient noise records observed by distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technology. Previous studies have obtained S-wave velocity (Vs) structures along submarine cables using surface waves; however P-wave velocity (Vp) structure have seldom been constructed because ambient noise primarily contains surface waves. Here, we show P and Rayleigh wave extractions from ambient seafloor noise observed by DAS, and also estimate the Vp and Vs structures along a submarine cable deployed off Cape Muroto in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan. To extract the P waves, we calculated the cross-correlation functions (CCFs) of the ambient noise and applied a frequency-wavenumber filter to the CCFs to remove the effects of slower surface waves. The results indicate that similar features can be obtained in the Vp and Vs profiles, and that the P wave extractions can be performed on days with poor weather conditions.

The spatial variation of azimuthal S-wave phase velocity anisotropies caused by differential horizontal stress along the subducting plate at the Nankai Trough was analyzed to understand the stress state of the overhung block of the forearc region, off Kii Peninsula, Japan. We conducted controlled-source seismic surveys along the circumference of a 3 km diameter circle centered at each seismometer of a cabled earthquake observatory installed on the seafloor above the Kumano basin of the Nankai Trough subduction zone. We applied an anisotropy semblance method to estimate the orientation of fast and slow S-wave velocities of both shallow sediments and deep accretionary prism using the multi-azimuth seismic dataset acquired at each seismometer location. The estimated orientations of fast S-wave velocity are parallel to the convergent direction of the subducting place beneath the Kumano basin in the deeper accretionary prism while perpendicular to the convergent direction in the shallow sediments inside the Kumano basin. The orientations of these fast S-wave polarization show good agreement with those of horizontal maximum stress orientations estimated in situ borehole measurements in the observation area Then differential horizontal stress field in the Nankai Trough region was estimated from obtained S-wave anisotropy using a simple crack model. The azimuths of fast S-wave polarization and the derived differential stresses could be explained well by the tectonics of the Nankai Trough subduction zone. These results strongly suggested that the S-wave azimuthal anisotropy measurements could be used to monitor the subsurface stress field as a function of time.

Seismic wave extractions have been performed using ambient noise records observed by distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technology. Extractions of microseisms can be investigated at a local scale using such DAS records observed in the ocean. Here, we show P and Scholte wave extractions from ambient seafloor noise observed by DAS along a submarine cable deployed off Cape Muroto in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan. The P waves can be observed at a frequency band of 0.1–0.3 Hz and up to a distance of 6–7 km. The distance in which the P waves can be observed is controlled by the P incident angle and the DAS sensitivity to the observable apparent velocity. The effective extractions of P and Scholte waves are performed in correspondence to large significant wave heights of the sea surface, which indicate that these waves are originated from fluid distturbances at the sea surface.

At the northern Cascadia subduction zone, the subducting Explorer and Juan de Fuca plates interact across a transform deformation zone, known as the Nootka fault zone (NFZ). This study continues the Seafloor Earthquake Array Japan Canada Cascadia Experiment to a second phase (SeaJade II) consisting of nine months of recording of earthquakes using ocean-bottom and land-based seismometers. In addition to mapping the distribution of seismicity, including an MW 6.4 earthquake and aftershocks along the previously unknown Nootka Sequence Fault, we also conducted seismic tomography that delineates the geometry of the shallow subducting Explorer plate (ExP). We derived hundreds of high-quality focal mechanism solutions from the SeaJade II data. The mechanisms manifest a complex regional tectonic state, with normal faulting of the ExP west of the NFZ, left-lateral strike-slip behaviour of the NFZ, and reverse faulting within the overriding plate above the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. Using data from the combined SeaJade I and II catalogs, we have performed double-difference hypocentre relocations and found seismicity lineations to the southeast of, and oriented 18° clockwise from, the subducted NFZ, which we interpret to represent less active small faults off the primary faults of the NFZ. These lineations are not optimally oriented for shear failure in the regional stress field, which we inferred from averaged focal mechanism solutions, and may represent paleo-configurations of the NFZ. Further, active faults interpreted from seismicity lineations within the subducted plate, including the Nootka Sequence Fault, may have originated as conjugate faults within the paleo-NFZ.

Monitoring slow earthquake activity in subduction zones can give important insight into the stress build-up and subsequent rupture extent of megathrust earthquakes. Extensive slow earthquake activity occurs up-dip of the seismogenic zone of the Nankai Trough subduction zone, an area that might be awaiting a large (Mw {greater than or equal to}8) earthquake in the near future. Mechanisms used to explain the occurrence of slow earthquakes are often linked to temporal changes in fluid transport along faults. This study utilises this theory in evaluating the usage of 4D gravity measurements on the seafloor for monitoring changes in fluid flow, hence monitoring the slow earthquake activity and the mechanisms behind them. We model the gravity response from fluid-related density changes in an area of the Nankai Trough accretionary prism that experiences several slow earthquake episodes in the interseismic period. The forward modelled 4D gravity response is used to estimate volumes of fluid at specific locations of the accretionary prism and plate interface corresponding to a minimum gravity signal of 5 µGal. This accuracy in the gravity signal is obtainable through technology monitoring micro-gravity effects at the seafloor. Based on the results we have formulated a hypothesis on how small fluid volume changes can be detected through a gravimetry survey at the seafloor of the Nankai Trough. The results can also be used to design a survey layout for obtaining valuable 4D gravity data at the Nankai Trough.