Deep Investigations of Outer-Rise Tsunami Characteristics using
Well-Mapped Normal Faults along the Japan Trench
Abstract
The giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) could be expected to induce an
8-class outer-rise earthquake at the Japan Trench. In order to assess
the risk of tsunamis from outer-rise events, we carried out tsunami
simulations using 33 simple rectangular fault models with 60 degrees
dips based on geophysical studies of the Japan Trench. The largest
tsunami resulting from these models, a fault 332 km long producing a
8.66 normal-faulting event, had a maximum height of 27.0 m. We tested
variations of the predictions due to the uncertainties in the assumed
parameters. Because seismic observations and surveys show that the dip
angles of outer-rise faults range from 45 to 75 degrees, we calculated
tsunamis from events on fault models with 45-75 degree dips. We tested a
compound fault model with 75 degrees dip in the upper half and 45
degrees dip in the lower half. Rake angles were varied by plus-minus 15
degrees. We also tested models consisting of small subfaults with
dimensions of about 60 km, models using other earthquake scaling laws,
and models including dispersive tsunami effects. Predicted tsunami
heights changed by 5-10% for dip angle changes, about 5-10% from
considering tsunami dispersion, about 2% from rake angle changes, and
about 1% from using the model with subfaults. The use of different
earthquake scaling laws changed predicted tsunami heights by about 50%
on average for the 33 fault models. We emphasize that the earthquake
scaling law used in tsunami predictions for outer-rise earthquakes
should be chosen with great care.