A document by Samson Tilahun Moges. Click on the document to view its contents.

Understanding global space weather effects is of great importance to the international scientific community, but more localised space weather predictions are important on a national level. In this study, data from a ground magnetometer at Valentia Observatory is used to characterise space weather effects on the island of Ireland. The horizontal component of magnetometer observations and its time derivative are considered, and extreme values of these are identified. These extremes are fit to a generalised extreme value distribution, and from this model return values (the expected magnitude of an observation within a given time window) are predicted. The causes of extreme values are investigated both in a case study, and also statistically by looking at contributions from geomagnetic storms, substorms, and sudden commencements. This work characterises the extreme part of the distribution of space weather effects on Ireland (and at similar latitudes), and hence examines those space weather observations which are likely to have the greatest impact on susceptible technologies.

We examine the average evolution of precipitation-induced height-integrated conductances, along with field-aligned currents, in the nightside sector of the polar cap over the course of a substorm. Conductances are estimated from the average energy flux and mean energies derived from auroral emission data. Data are binned using a superposed epoch analysis on a normalised time grid based on the time between onset and recovery phase ($\delta$t) of each contributing substorm. We also examine conductances using a fixed time binning of width 0.25 hr. We split the data set by magnetic latitude of onset. We find that the highest conductances are observed for substorms with onsets that occur between 63 and 65 degrees magnetic latitude, peaking at around 11 mho (Hall) and 4.8 mho (Pedersen). Substorms with onsets at higher magnetic latitudes show lower conductances and less variability. Changes in conductance over the course of a substorm appear primarily driven by changes (about 40% at onset) in the average energy flux, rather than the average energy of the precipitation. Average energies increase after onset slower than energy flux, later these energies decrease slowly for the lowest latitude onsets. No clear expansion of the main region 1 and region 2 field-aligned currents is observed. However, we do see an ordering of the current magnitudes with magnetic latitude of onset, particularly for region 1 downwards FAC in the morning sector. Peak current magnitudes occur slightly after or before the start of the recovery phase for the normalised and fixed-time grids.