Extreme value analysis of ground magnetometer observations at Valentia
Observatory, Ireland
Abstract
Understanding global space weather effects is of great importance to the
international scientific community, but more localised space weather
predictions are important on a national level. In this study, data from
a ground magnetometer at Valentia Observatory is used to characterise
space weather effects on the island of Ireland. The horizontal component
of magnetometer observations and its time derivative are considered, and
extreme values of these are identified. These extremes are fit to a
generalised extreme value distribution, and from this model return
values (the expected magnitude of an observation within a given time
window) are predicted. The causes of extreme values are investigated
both in a case study, and also statistically by looking at contributions
from geomagnetic storms, substorms, and sudden commencements. This work
characterises the extreme part of the distribution of space weather
effects on Ireland (and at similar latitudes), and hence examines those
space weather observations which are likely to have the greatest impact
on susceptible technologies.