Abstract
Ocean observations are expensive and difficult to collect. Designing
effective ocean observing systems therefore warrants deliberate,
quantitative strategies. We leverage adjoint modeling and Hessian
uncertainty quantification (UQ) within the ECCO (Estimating the
Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) framework to explore a new design
strategy for ocean climate observing systems. Within this context, an
observing system is optimal if it minimizes uncertainty in a set of
investigator-defined quantities of interest (QoIs), such as oceanic
transports or other key climate indices. We show that Hessian UQ unifies
three design concepts. (1) An observing system reduces uncertainty in a
target QoI most effectively when it is sensitive to the same dynamical
controls as the QoI. The dynamical controls are exposed by the Hessian
eigenvector patterns of the model-data misfit function. (2)
Orthogonality of the Hessian eigenvectors rigorously accounts for
redundancy between distinct members of the observing system. (3) The
Hessian eigenvalues determine the overall effectiveness of the observing
system, and are controlled by the sensitivity-to-noise ratio of the
observational assets (analogous to the statistical signal-to-noise
ratio). We illustrate Hessian UQ and its three underlying concepts in a
North Atlantic case study. Sea surface temperature observations inform
mainly local air-sea fluxes. In contrast, subsurface temperature
observations reduce uncertainty over basin-wide scales, and can
therefore inform transport QoIs at great distances. This research
provides insight into the design of effective observing systems that
maximally inform the target QoIs, while being complementary to the
existing observational database.