Haibo HU

and 5 more

Using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data and numerical simulations, the impacts of the multi-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific on the boreal winter atmospheric circulations are investigated. The basin-scale SST anomaly as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) pattern, a narrow meridional band of frontal-scale smoothed SST anomaly in the subtropical front zone (STFZ) and the spatial dispersed eddy-scale SST anomalies within the STFZ are the three types of forcings. The results of Liang-Kleeman information flow method find that all three oceanic forcings may correspond to the winter North Pacific jet changing with the similar pattern. Furthermore, several simulations are used to reveal the differences and detail processes of the three forcings. The basin-scale cold PDO-pattern SST anomaly first causes negative turbulent heat flux anomalies, atmospheric cooling, and wind deceleration in the lower atmosphere. Subsequently, the cooling temperature with an amplified southern lower temperature gradient and baroclinity brings a lagging middle warming because of the enhanced atmospheric eddy heat transport. The poleward and upward development of baroclinic fluctuations eventually causes the acceleration of the upper jet. The smoothed frontal- and eddy-scale SST anomalies in the STFZ cause comparable anomalous jet as the basin-scale by changing the upward baroclinic energy and E-P fluxes. The forcing effects of multi-scale SST anomalies coexist simultaneously in the mid-latitude North Pacific, which can cause similar anomalous upper atmospheric circulations. This is probably why it is tricky to define the certain oceanic forcing that leads to specific atmospheric circulation variation in observations

Xuguang Sun

and 5 more

By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that the frequency of ENSO events greatly increases due to global warming, and many more extreme El Niño and La Niña events appear under the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, respectively. This study reconciles the phenomena and mechanisms of different characteristics of ENSO changes in observations and models.

Xuguang Sun

and 2 more

With datasets of Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) NOAH land surface model, GPCC monthly mean rainfall and NCAR/NCEP global monthly mean reanalysis from 1948 to 2010, by using methods of filtering, composite and linear regression and correlation, characteristics of Eurasian snow depth anomalies in El Niño mature winter, its influences on soil moisture after snow melting, and finally on East Asian summer monsoon are investigated, and the main conclusions are as follows: In El Niño mature winter, snow depth in regions of the Iranian Plateau, the northeast of Lake Balkhash and the southern Tibetan Plateau increase remarkably, so are the related snow melting and soil moisture. The above-mentioned three regions are identified as the key regions for snow depth to store and extend the El Niño signals. In spring, the snow begins to melt, and the soil moisture increases correspondingly, thus the El Niño signals are transmitted from winter snow depth to soil moisture in spring. As a result, sensible heat flux decreases and latent heat flux increases, and the atmospheric circulations are greatly influenced. The anomalous soil moisture in the Iranian plateau is most important for the East Asian summer monsoon in El Niño decaying summer, since it has similar impact pattern on the anomalous summer precipitation as the El Niño composite. The spring and summer soil moisture in both the southern Tibetan plateau and the northeast of Lake Balkhash increase simultaneously, which significantly contribute to the increased precipitation in North China. Therefore, to investigate and predict the East Asian summer monsoon variabilities by using El Niño signal, the roles of snow depth in storing and modulating El Niño impacts in those key regions should be considered.