Abstract
By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year
simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2
concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global
warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the
maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western
Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern
Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model,
respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the
tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense
surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the
easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts
the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On
the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds
in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere
coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends
to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the
background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind
anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called
"Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the
so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely
formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like
background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both
the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and
especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El
Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly
applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak
of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth
and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal
in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the
model also show that the frequency of ENSO events greatly increases due
to global warming, and many more extreme El Niño and La Niña events
appear under the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings,
respectively. This study reconciles the phenomena and mechanisms of
different characteristics of ENSO changes in observations and models.