A binomial stochastic framework for efficiently modeling discrete
statistics of convective populations
Abstract
Understanding cloud-circulation coupling in the Trade wind regions, as
well as addressing the grey zone problem in convective parameterization,
requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in
cumulus cloud populations. In this study a simple toy model for
recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed
over a two-dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key
elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete
formulation for capturing binary behavior at small population sample
sizes, ii) object demographics for representing life-cycle effects, and
iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and
co-existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the
computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object
birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially-aware
Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to
horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object
number. Implied behavior of the formulation is assessed, illustrating
that typical powerlaw scaling in the internal variability of subsampled
convective populations as found in previous LES studies is reproduced.
Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on
Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that well-known phenomena from
nature can be captured at low computational cost. These include i)
subsampling effects in the convective grey zone, ii) stochastic
predator-prey behavior, iii) the down-scale turbulent energy cascade,
and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory.
Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in
next-generation weather and climate models are discussed.