Global climate change is often thought of as a steady and approximately predictable physical response to increasing forcings, which then requires commensurate adaptation. But adaptation has practical, cultural and biological limits, and climate change may pose unanticipated global hazards, sudden changes or other surprises, as may societal adaptation and mitigation responses. We outline a strategy for better accommodating these challenges by making climate science more integrative, in order to identify and quantify known and novel physical risks even–or especially–when they are highly uncertain, and to explore risks and opportunities associated with mitigation and adaptation responses by engaging across disciplines. This improves the chances of anticipating potential surprises and identifying and communicating “safe landing” pathways that meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and guide humanity toward a better future.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC’s response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. We find no consistent changes in the overall AMOC strength across the simulations, which conforms with reconstructions assimilating proxy records. Similarly, the decadal variability of the AMOC does not change during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

Stratospheric dynamics and chemistry can impact the tropospheric climate through changing radiatively active atmospheric constituents and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. The impact of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry on the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate is not well studied and remains an uncertain aspect of glacial-interglacial climate change. Here we perform coupled LGM simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), with a high-top atmosphere—the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 with a middle atmosphere chemistry mechanism (WACCM6ma). The CESM2(WACCM6ma) LGM simulations show a weaker stratospheric circulation than the preindustrial, 10–35% less tropospheric ozone and 10–50% more ozone in the lower stratosphere. These stratospheric dynamics and chemistry changes cause slightly colder (by <5%) LGM surface and tropospheric temperatures than parallel simulations using a low-top atmosphere model without active chemistry. The results suggest that stratospheric dynamics and chemistry have little direct effect on the glacial-interglacial climate change.

The early Eocene (~56-48 million years ago) is characterised by high CO2 estimates (1200-2500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (~10 to 16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g. Africa). Here we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models in the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre-industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model- and geographically dependent, however these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre-industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa, whereas it is likely that changes in vegetation in the models are responsible for the simulated region of drying over equatorial Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low-level circulation is replaced by increased south-westerly flow at high CO2 levels. Lastly, a model-data comparison using newly-compiled quantitative climate estimates from palaeobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO2.

Three new equilibrium Mid-Pliocene (MP) simulations are implemented with the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2), and 2 (CESM2). All simulations are carried out with the same boundary and forcing conditions following the protocol of Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2. These simulations reveal amplified MP climate change relative to preindustrial going from CCSM4 to CESM2, seen in global mean and polar amplification of surface warming, sea ice reduction in both Arctic and Antarctic, and weakened Hadley circulation. The enhanced global mean warming arises from both enhanced Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) to CO forcing. ESS is amplified by up to 70% in CCSM4, and up to 100% in CESM1.2 and CESM2 relative to ECSs of respective models. Simulations also agree on the strengthened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but disagree on several other climate metrics. Compared to preindustrial, CCSM4 features small increase in both low and high cloud cover and no change in the mean climate state of the equatorial Pacific. Whereas, both CESM1.2 and 2 show reduction of cloud cover at all heights, and an anomalous El Niño-like state of the equatorial Pacific. The performances of MP simulations are assessed with a new compilation of paleo-observations of sea surface temperature (SST). CESM1.2 and 2 show better skills than CCSM4 in simulating MP global mean warming and amplified SST warming in the northern middle and high latitudes, supporting the amplified ESS compared to the CCSM4.

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly - 2.1K in CESM1 and 2.0K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab-ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully-coupled earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5 degC) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we use the LGM global temperature from geological proxies as a benchmark to examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to more cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed 20th century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (~4 degC) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically and numerically better treatment of cloud microphysics and, we believe, is a more appropriate tool than CESM2 in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.

We investigate hydrology during a past climate slightly warmer than the present: the Last Interglacial (LIG). With daily output of pre-industrial and LIG simulations from eight new climate models we force hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, and in turn hydrodynamic model CaMa-Flood. Compared to pre-industrial, annual mean LIG runoff, discharge, and 100-year flood volume are considerably larger in the Northern Hemisphere, by 14%, 25% and 82%, respectively. Anomalies are negative in the Southern Hemisphere. In some boreal regions, LIG runoff and discharge are lower despite higher precipitation, due the higher temperatures and evaporation. LIG discharge is much higher for the Niger, Congo, Nile, Ganges, Irrawaddy, Pearl, and lower for the Mississippi, Saint Lawrence, Amazon, Paraná, Orange, Zambesi, Danube, Ob. Discharge is seasonally postponed in tropical rivers affected by monsoon changes. Results agree with published proxies on the sign of discharge anomaly in 15 of 23 sites where comparison is possible.