Abstract
Global climate change is often thought of as a steady and approximately
predictable physical response to increasing forcings, which then
requires commensurate adaptation. But adaptation has practical, cultural
and biological limits, and climate change may pose unanticipated global
hazards, sudden changes or other surprises, as may societal adaptation
and mitigation responses. We outline a strategy for better accommodating
these challenges by making climate science more integrative, in order to
identify and quantify known and novel physical risks even–or
especially–when they are highly uncertain, and to explore risks and
opportunities associated with mitigation and adaptation responses by
engaging across disciplines. This improves the chances of anticipating
potential surprises and identifying and communicating “safe landing”
pathways that meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and guide humanity
toward a better future.