Abstract
We assess the detectability of COVID-like emissions reductions in global
atmospheric CO2 concentrations using a suite of large
ensembles conducted with an Earth system model. We find a unique
fingerprint of COVID in the simulated growth rate of CO2
sampled at the locations of surface measurement sites. Negative
anomalies in growth rates persist from January 2020 through December
2021, reaching a maximum in February 2021. However, this fingerprint is
not formally detectable unless we force the model with unrealistically
large emissions reductions. Internal variability and
carbon-concentration feedbacks obscure the detectability of short-term
emission reductions in atmospheric CO2. COVID-driven
changes in the simulated interhemispheric CO2 gradient
and column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (total
column or XCO2) are eclipsed by large internal
variability. Carbon-concentration feedbacks begin to operate almost
immediately after the emissions reduction; these feedbacks reduce the
emissions-driven signal in the atmosphere carbon reservoir and further
confound signal detection.