Shujie Wang

and 6 more

The rapidly-changing Thwaites Ice Shelf is crucial for understanding ice-shelf instability and its implications for sea-level rise from Antarctica. Fractures play a significant role in this region but are poorly characterized, especially regarding their vertical depth. To address this gap, we developed a robust workflow that adapts to surface topography complexities to characterize time-varying fracture vertical properties over Thwaites using ICESat-2 altimetry measurements. We derived seasonal flow velocities from Sentinel-1 data and analyzed climate reanalysis data to examine flow-fracture interactions in the context of oceanic and atmospheric changes. The results revealed distinct fracturing and flow patterns between the eastern and western sectors of the ice shelf. Significant fracturing was observed along the shear margin and near the grounding line in the eastern sector, correlating with flow speed increases exceeding 90% at shear zones. In contrast, the western glacier tongue exhibited a less progressive fracturing pattern, with an active fracture zone downstream of the historical grounding line and overall flow deceleration. This is likely due to the stabilizing effects of grounding-zone geometry, a subglacial sill, and increased coupling to the slower-moving eastern sector. Atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data suggest that atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean interactions could destabilize an ice shelf through shallow oceanic warming. Warm winters, reduced sea ice, and favorable winds and ocean currents can cause shoaling of warm Circumpolar Deep Water, facilitating access of warm waters to thin, structurally vulnerable areas such as shear margins and basal channels. This intensifies fracturing and triggers damage-flow-acceleration feedback that could lead to eventual ice-shelf destabilization.

Shujie Wang

and 6 more

Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, may also be vulnerable to future collapse in a warming climate. Here, we utilize multi-source satellite images collected over 1963–2020 to derive multidecadal time series of ice front, flow velocities, and critical rift features over Larsen C, with the aim of understanding the controls on its retreat. We complement these observations with modeling experiments using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model to examine how front geometry conditions and mechanical weakening due to rifts affect ice shelf dynamics. Over the past six decades, Larsen C lost over 20% of its area, dominated by rift-induced tabular iceberg calving. The Bawden Ice Rise and Gipps Ice Rise are critical areas for rift formation, through their impact on the longitudinal deviatoric stress field. Mechanical weakening around Gipps Ice Rise is found to be a primary control on localized flow acceleration, leading to the propagation of two rifts that caused a major calving event in 2017. Capturing the time-varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity in ice shelf models is essential for making realistic predictions of ice shelf flow dynamics and instability. In the context of the Larsen A and Larsen B collapses, we infer a chronology of destabilization processes for embayment-confined ice shelves, which provides a useful framework for understanding the historical and future destabilization of Antarctic ice shelves.