Abstract
Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important
clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice
Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, may
also be vulnerable to future collapse in a warming climate. Here, we
utilize multi-source satellite images collected over 1963–2020 to
derive multidecadal time series of ice front, flow velocities, and
critical rift features over Larsen C, with the aim of understanding the
controls on its retreat. We complement these observations with modeling
experiments using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model to examine
how front geometry conditions and mechanical weakening due to rifts
affect ice shelf dynamics. Over the past six decades, Larsen C lost over
20% of its area, dominated by rift-induced tabular iceberg calving. The
Bawden Ice Rise and Gipps Ice Rise are critical areas for rift
formation, through their impact on the longitudinal deviatoric stress
field. Mechanical weakening around Gipps Ice Rise is found to be a
primary control on localized flow acceleration, leading to the
propagation of two rifts that caused a major calving event in 2017.
Capturing the time-varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity in ice shelf
models is essential for making realistic predictions of ice shelf flow
dynamics and instability. In the context of the Larsen A and Larsen B
collapses, we infer a chronology of destabilization processes for
embayment-confined ice shelves, which provides a useful framework for
understanding the historical and future destabilization of Antarctic ice
shelves.