Pacific decadal variability (PDV), low-frequency changes in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), significantly impacts global climate. However, disentangling anthropogenic effects upon PDV is challenging since both vary on similar time scales. Using single-forcing climate model large ensembles, we find that anthropogenic forcing primarily drives a spatially-varying pattern of mean-state change in North Pacific SST that project onto leading PDV patterns, principally the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). In fact, when the trend is determined by the model ensemble mean, there is no forced change of the PDV modes. However, analysis of single model realizations, where the mean-state trend cannot be cleanly identified, suggests an apparent anthropogenic change in NPGO decadal variability. This suggests that observed PDV responses to anthropogenic forcing may be erroneously convolved with the background trend pattern. Therefore, correctly determining the mean-state trend is a necessary precursor for identifying forced changes to PDV.

The Recharge Oscillator (RO) is a simple mathematical model of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In its original form, it is based on two ordinary differential equations that describe the evolution of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and oceanic heat content. These equations make use of physical principles that operate in nature: (i) the air-sea interaction loop known as the Bjerknes feedback, (ii) a delayed oceanic feedback arising from the slow oceanic response to near-equatorial winds, (iii) state-dependent stochastic forcing from intraseasonal wind variations known as westerly wind bursts (WWBs), and (iv) nonlinearities such as those related to deep atmospheric convection and oceanic advection. These elements can be combined in different levels of RO complexity. The RO reproduces ENSO key properties in observations and climate models: its amplitude, dominant timescale, seasonality, and warm/cold phases amplitude asymmetry. We discuss the RO in the context of timely research questions. First, the RO can be extended to account for ENSO pattern diversity (with events that either peak in the central or eastern Pacific). Second, the core RO hypothesis that ENSO is governed by tropical Pacific dynamics is discussed from the perspective of influences from other basins. Finally, we discuss the RO relevance for studying ENSO response to climate change, and underline that accounting for ENSO diversity, nonlinearities, and better links of RO parameters to the long term mean state are important research avenues. We end by proposing important RO-based research problems.

Coral oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from the central equatorial Pacific provide monthly-resolved records of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity over past centuries to millennia. However, calibration studies using in situ data to assess the relative contributions of warming and freshening to coral δ18O records are exceedingly rare. Furthermore, the fidelity of coral δ18O records under the most severe thermal stress events is difficult to assess. Here, we present six coral δ18O records and in situ temperature, salinity, and seawater δ18O data from Kiritimati Island (2°N, 15°W) spanning the very strong 2015/16 El Niño event. Local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of +2.4±0.4°C and seawater δ18O anomalies of -0.19±0.02‰ contribute to the observed coral δ18O anomalies of -0.58±0.05‰, consistent with a ~70% contribution from SST and ~30% from seawater δ18O. Our results demonstrate that Kiritimati coral δ18O records can provide reliable reconstructions even during the largest class of El Niño events.

The latitudinal position of the subtropical jet over the Himalayas (Himalayan jet latitude or HJL) controls the region’s climate during winter and spring by guiding moisture-delivering storms. Here we use the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble to diagnose forced trends in HJL during the past millennium. During 850-1849, there is a weak equatorward trend in winter HJL. In contrast, the spring HJL has a relatively larger poleward trend, and increases in both variance and frequency of poleward/equatorward excursions. We demonstrate changes in orbital precession reduced the thermal gradient between tropical and subtropical Asia, shifting the spring HJL poleward. During 1850-2005, the spring HJL exhibits no trend due to compensating influences from orbital and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcings. These findings suggest it is essential climate models properly simulate the effects of and potential interactions between orbital forcing and anthropogenic factors to accurately project Himalayan jet variability and associated storm tracks.