The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) recharge oscillator conceptual
model : achievements and future prospects
Abstract
The Recharge Oscillator (RO) is a simple mathematical model of the El
Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In its original form, it is based on
two ordinary differential equations that describe the evolution of
equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and oceanic heat content.
These equations make use of physical principles that operate in nature:
(i) the air-sea interaction loop known as the Bjerknes feedback, (ii) a
delayed oceanic feedback arising from the slow oceanic response to
near-equatorial winds, (iii) state-dependent stochastic forcing from
intraseasonal wind variations known as westerly wind bursts (WWBs), and
(iv) nonlinearities such as those related to deep atmospheric convection
and oceanic advection. These elements can be combined in different
levels of RO complexity. The RO reproduces ENSO key properties in
observations and climate models: its amplitude, dominant timescale,
seasonality, and warm/cold phases amplitude asymmetry. We discuss the RO
in the context of timely research questions. First, the RO can be
extended to account for ENSO pattern diversity (with events that either
peak in the central or eastern Pacific). Second, the core RO hypothesis
that ENSO is governed by tropical Pacific dynamics is discussed from the
perspective of influences from other basins. Finally, we discuss the RO
relevance for studying ENSO response to climate change, and underline
that accounting for ENSO diversity, nonlinearities, and better links of
RO parameters to the long term mean state are important research
avenues. We end by proposing important RO-based research problems.