Orbital Forcing Strongly Influences the Poleward Shift of the Spring
Himalayan Jet During the Past Millennium
Abstract
The latitudinal position of the subtropical jet over the Himalayas
(Himalayan jet latitude or HJL) controls the region’s climate during
winter and spring by guiding moisture-delivering storms. Here we use the
Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble to diagnose forced
trends in HJL during the past millennium. During 850-1849, there is a
weak equatorward trend in winter HJL. In contrast, the spring HJL has a
relatively larger poleward trend, and increases in both variance and
frequency of poleward/equatorward excursions. We demonstrate changes in
orbital precession reduced the thermal gradient between tropical and
subtropical Asia, shifting the spring HJL poleward. During 1850-2005,
the spring HJL exhibits no trend due to compensating influences from
orbital and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcings. These findings
suggest it is essential climate models properly simulate the effects of
and potential interactions between orbital forcing and anthropogenic
factors to accurately project Himalayan jet variability and associated
storm tracks.