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An approach to link climate model tropical cyclogenesis bias to large-scale wind circulation modes
  • +2
  • Xiangbo Feng,
  • Ralf Toumi,
  • Malcolm Roberts,
  • Kevin I Hodges,
  • Pier Luigi Vidale
Xiangbo Feng
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of 5 Reading, Department of Physics, Imperial College London

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Ralf Toumi
Department of Physics, Imperial College London
Malcolm Roberts
Kevin I Hodges
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of 5 Reading
Pier Luigi Vidale
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of 5 Reading

Abstract

Attributing sources of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) bias to large-scale circulation in global circulation models is challenging. Here, we propose the use of empirical orthogonal functions as an approach to understand model bias of TCG. Two leading modes of large-scale wind circulations in the West Pacific can explain the TCG frequency and location in both climate reanalysis and the MetUM model. In the reanalysis, the two modes distinguish the summer monsoon trough position and the strength of the north Pacific subtropical high. However, in the model, the wind circulations are biased towards the positive phase of simulated modes thus overestimating TCG in the entire Main Development Region. This bias is further related to the north-eastward shifted monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high, and overly strong tropics-subtropics connections. This approach could be deployed more widely to other basins and models to diagnose the causes of TCG bias.
17 Jul 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
20 Jul 2023Published in ESS Open Archive