Abstract
Persistent warming and water cycle change due to anthropogenic climate
change modifies the temperature and salinity distribution of the ocean
over time. This ‘forced’ signal of temperature and salinity change is
often masked by the background internal variability of the climate
system. Analysing temperature and salinity change in watermass-based
coordinate systems has been proposed as an alternative to traditional
Eulerian (e.g., fixed-depth, zonally-averaged) co-ordinate systems. The
impact of internal variability is thought to be reduced in watermass
co-ordinates, enabling a cleaner separation of the forced signal from
background variability - or a higher ‘signal-to-noise’ ratio. Building
on previous analyses comparing Eulerian and water-mass-based
one-dimensional coordinates, here we recast two-dimensional co-ordinate
systems - temperature-salinity (T-S), latitude-longitude and
latitude-depth - onto a directly comparable equal-volume framework. We
compare the internal variability, or ‘noise’ in temperature and salinity
between these remapped two-dimensional co-ordinate systems in a 500 year
pre-industrial control run from a CMIP6 climate model. We find that
median internal variability is reduced in both ocean heat and salt
content in T-S space compared to Eulerian coordinates, and that a large
proportion of variability in T-S space can be attributed to processes
which operate over a timescale greater than 10 years. We show that, as a
consequence of the reduced projection of internal variability into T-S
space, the signal-to-noise ratio in watermass co-ordinates is at least
two times greater than in Eulerian co-ordinate systems, implying that
the climate change signal can be more robustly identified.