The instrumental data shows 7%-20% increase in annual discharge of the major Eurasian rivers like Ob, Yenisei and Lena between 1936 and 2018 (Wang et al. 2021). The trend has been attributed to increased precipitation and permafrost thawing due to the temperature warming (Walvoord, Kurylyk 2016). However, the instrumental data does not provide the longterm scope of the trend. We modeled seasonal discharge from tree rings for the Yenisei River upstream at Kyzyl gauge and found a remarkable 80% upsurge in winter ‘ow (Nov-Apr) over the last 25 years, which is unprecedented in the last 214 years since 1784 (Panyushkina et al. 2021). In contrast, the annual discharge (Oct-Sept) has only a 7% increase over the last 25 years and shows normal range of variability since 1700 (Fig. 1). Water balance modeling with CRU data at the Yenisei upstream indicates a significant discrepancy between decadal variability of the gauged ‘ow and climate data after 1960 (Fig. 1). The long-term buckhound of the changes in regional hydrology is successfully assessed with tree-ring methods. The tree-ring networks in Eurasian cold climates have a great potential to reconstruct spatial pattern of the seasonal runoff and quantify the long-term impact of permafrost degradation on the hydrological regimes in Siberia. We discuss the impact of melting permafrost on the base ‘ow and enrichment of the surface and groundwater interaction at the Yenisei River basin coupled with the warming temperature and, more importantly, forest fires. Recent increase in the frequency, size, and intensity of boreal fires scale s of its impact on hydrology and permafrost in Siberia. This study demonstrates the complexity of hydrological feedback in Siberia to the Arctic Ampli:cation (AA). The adverse impacts of AA have been and will remain the greatest for the health and socioeconomic of people living in the Pan-Arctic and the geopolitics and macroeconomics of the global society.

Mixing in the ocean interior clearly draws its energy from the internal wave field. The pathway is often described as “Internal wave breaking“, contrary to the observation that the smallest vertical internal wave scales are larger than the largest turbulence scales. Evidence for a different pathway is reviewed here: Internal waves generate patches of LAST, “layered stratified turbulence”, a well-characterized class of motions distinct from internal waves and three-dimensional turbulence. LAST dominates the dynamics in the ‘–1’ range of vertical wavenumbers between internal waves and turbulence. It is possibly generated at transient critical layers, cascades energy to smaller scales and dissipates by generating patches of turbulence and mixing through shear instability. The existence of such patches is well-documented and the limited data suggests that they produce most of the mixing. The mixing efficiency is set by the properties of LAST, not the properties of internal waves.

Polar regions are highly sensitive to climate change. In recent decades, the Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the world average, which has led to a significant loss of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. The positive feedback from continental hydrology to Arctic warming amplifies perturbations in the climate system in response to changes in heat and freshwater fluxes. As the surface warms and storm paths change, precipitation and glacier melt have increased pan-Arctic runoff. Melting permafrost adds even more water to river systems. Our research aims to understand 1) whether this feedback impacts the river flow only in the warm season, 2) whether the runoff change in the cold (winter) season can amplify the initial warming, and 3) what is the spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal variations in streamflow across pan-Arctic watersheds. Tree rings serve as critical proxies for quantifying hydrological responses to climate change. We are exploring the potential of modeling seasonal flows, especially winter versus spring and summer flows, and water temperature using intra-seasonal aggregation of climate signals in subsets of ring chronologies derived from quantified tracheal cell parameters: cell area, tangential cell diameter, radial cell diameter, cell wall thickness. The preliminary results demonstrate significant correlation of summer water temperature with cell area and radial cell diameter, whereas the discharge correlates stronger with cell wall thickness and tangential cell diameter. We emphasize the importance of modeling intra-seasonal hydrological parameters versa the hydrological year average to analyze the contribution of continental hydrology to Arctic warming.

Fault zone structures at many scales largely dictate earthquake ruptures and are controlled by the geologic setting and slip history. Characterizations of these structures at diverse scales inform better understandings of earthquake hazards and earthquake phenomenology. However, characterizing fault zones at sub-kilometer scales has historically been challenging, and these challenges are exacerbated in urban areas, where locating and characterizing faults is critical for hazard assessment. We present a new procedure for characterizing fault zones at sub-kilometer scales using distributed acoustic sensing (DAS). This technique involves the backprojection of the DAS-measured scattered wavefield generated by natural earthquakes. This framework provides a measure of the strength of scattering along a DAS array and thus constrains the positions and properties of local scatterers. The high spatial sampling of DAS arrays makes possible the resolution of these scatterers at the scale of tens of meters over distances of kilometers. We test this methodology using a DAS array in Ridgecrest, CA which recorded much of the 2019 Mw7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake aftershock sequence. We show that peaks in scattering along the DAS array are spatially correlated with mapped faults in the region and that the strength of scattering is frequency-dependent. We present a model of these scatterers as shallow, low-velocity zones that is consistent with how we may expect faults to perturb the local velocity structure. We show that the fault zone geometry can be constrained by comparing our observations with synthetic tests.

In the near-future, new space telescopes like JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx will begin attempting to explore the properties of atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. This will require a significant amount of time and resources for even a single planet, which makes it essential to prioritize observations by those most-likely to have detectable life. Here we present a statistical method to estimate the probabilities that specific exoplanets have been continuously in the habitable zone of their host stars for more than 2 billion years, the approximate time it took life on Earth to significantly increase the oxygen content of the atmosphere. We introduce the use of statistics of an ensemble of 3D planetary general circulation models to estimate these probabilities, replacing prior 1D model estimates.

Elevated nitrate concentrations in German water bodies are a widespread problem, potentially resulting from a long history of excess nitrogen (N) inputs. Here, we investigated long-term (1950-2014) N dynamics across 89 German catchments using a process-based model. Results showed that the mean fractions of N surplus (excess) exported to the river, removed by denitrification, accumulated in the soil zone, and accumulated in groundwater across all catchments are 27%, 58%, 14%, and 1%, respectively. Dissolved inorganic N in groundwater could affect the stream N levels over decades as indicated by long groundwater transit times. A cluster identified four catchment groups with distinct archetypal long-term N transport and retention dynamics, which can be partly linked to the catchments’ topographic and geological conditions. This hints at underlying mechanisms that explain spatial differences in the fate of diffuse N inputs to catchments and opens the possibility for better-targeted management

The thermochronological method was applied to metamorphic rocks distributed in eastern Nepal to elucidate the denudation process of the upper-crust of the continental collision zone. New results of systematic fission-track (FT) age dating and FT length measurements of zircon and apatite were utilized in the thermochronological inverse analysis to reconstruct the time-temperature (t-T) paths in the temperature range of 60–350°C. Eight t-T paths obtained along the across-strike section in eastern Nepal showed that the cooling process of the metamorphic rocks are characterized by 1) gradual cooling (<30°C/Myr) followed by rapid cooling (~150°C/Myr) and subsequent gradual cooling (gradual-rapid-gradual cooling: GRG cooling), 2) northward-younging of the timing of the rapid cooling since ca. 9 Ma. The observed FT ages and t-T paths were then compared with the FT ages and t-T paths obtained by forward calculations using 3-D thermokinematic models to test the following four tectono-thermal models which have been proposed in the Central and Eastern Himalayas: 1) The denudation of the upper-crust is associated with the movement of the plate boundary fault (Main Himalayan Thrust: MHT) showing flat geometry (the Flat MHT model) and 2) flat-ramp-flat geometry (the Flat-Ramp-Flat MHT model), 3) the denudation of the upper-crust is mainly controlled by the focused uplift associated with the growth of the Lesser Himalayan Duplex (the Duplex 01-03 model) or 4) slip of the splay fault of the MHT (the Splay Fault model). As a result, only the Flat-Ramp-Flat MHT model reconstructed similar t-T paths and age distribution patterns obtained from eastern Nepal. This suggests that the observed FT ages and t-T paths reflect a denudation process driven by the movement of the MHT showing a flat-ramp-flat geometry. The GRG cooling and the northward-younging of the timing of rapid cooling indicate that the flat-ramp-flat geometry of the MHT was established by ca. 9 Ma and has been stable thereafter. The result of the thermokinematic inverse analysis also indicates that the denudation rate and its spatial distribution have been stable since ca. 9 Ma.

We use a statistical emulation technique to construct synthetic ensembles of global and regional sea-air carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from four observation-based products over 1985-2014. Much like ensembles of Earth system models that are constructed by perturbing their initial conditions, our synthetic ensemble members exhibit different phasing of internal variability and a common externally forced signal. Our synthetic ensembles illustrate an important role for internal variability in the temporal evolution of global and regional CO2 flux and produce a wide range of possible trends over 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. We assume a specific externally forced signal and calculate the likelihood of the observed trend given the distribution of synthetic trends during these two periods. Over the decade 1990-1999, three of the four observation-based products exhibit small negative trends in globally integrated sea-air CO2 flux (i.e., enhanced ocean CO2 absorption with time) that are highly probable (44-72% chance of occurrence) in their respective synthetic trend distributions. Over the decade 2000-2009, however, three of the four products show large negative trends in globally integrated sea-air CO2 flux that are somewhat improbable (17-19% chance of occurrence). Our synthetic ensembles suggest that the largest observation-based positive trends in global and Southern Ocean CO2 flux over 1990-1999 and the largest negative trends over 2000-2009 are somewhat improbable (<30% chance of occurrence). Our approach provides a new understanding of the role of internal and external processes in driving sea-air CO2 flux variability.

Seismic observations involve signals that can be easily masked by noise injection. For InSight, NASA's lander on Mars, the atmosphere is a significant noise contributor for two thirds of a Martian day, and while the noise is below that seen at even the quietest sites on Earth, the amplitude of seismic signals on Mars is also considerably lower requiring an understanding and quantification of environmental injection at unprecedented levels. Mars' ground and atmosphere provide a continuous coupled seismic system, and although atmospheric functions are of distinct origins, the superposition of these noise contributions is poorly understood, making separation a challenging task. We present a novel method for partitioning the observed signal into seismic and environmental contributions. Pressure and wind fluctuations are shown to exhibit temporal cross-frequency coupling across multiple bands, injecting noise that is neither random nor coherent. We investigate this through comodulation, quantifying the signal synchrony in seismic motion, wind and pressure. By working in the time-frequency domain, we discriminate the origins of underlying processes and provide the site's environmental sensitivity. Our method aims to create a virtual vault at InSight, shielding the seismometers with effective post-processing in lieu of a physical vault. This allows us to describe the environmental and seismic signals over a sequence of sols, to quantify the wind and pressure injection, and estimate the seismic content of possible Marsquakes with a signal-to-noise ratio that can be quantified in terms of environmental independence. Finally, we exploit the temporal energy correlations for source attribution of our observations.

The purposes of this work are (1) clarifying the specific latitude range in which the currently physical model of the equatorial trapped Magnetic-Archimedes-Coriolis (namely eMAC) waves propagating atop the Earth’s core can own the enough accuracy to describe the hydromagnetic waves; (2) presenting the systematically analytical expressions to represent the physical properties (e.g., the equatorial confinement and latitudinal distribution, damping rate α, eigen-period T) of the eMAC waves. Here, the new results indicate that: 1) the eMAC wave model can own the high accuracy (i.e., the relative errors are less than 5%) to describe the core waves in the regions with latitude below 25 degrees ; 2) the equatorial confinement and latitudinal distribution law is essentially governed by a specific solution form with the typical Hermite polynomial term of degree n; 3) the damping rate can be estimated by α ≈-π^2/(μσH^2) (μ being the vacuum permeability, σ being the core electrical conductivity; H being the stratified layer thickness of the core), showing that the magnetic diffusivity η (=1/(μσ))can cause the ohmic dissipation of the waves; besides, the H value is predicted to be larger than 20km, when T matches the observed 8.5yr period. This work also presents the analytical models for the perturbed magnetic fields due to the eMAC waves, presenting that the azimuthal perturbed magnetic field bφ(with degree n=1) is mainly confined to the equatorial regions with latitude below ~15 degrees, the profile of which coincides with the observed core surface azimuthal flows.

Oxygen isotopes in marine sediments (δ 18 O) are used to reconstruct Earth’s past temperature and reveal a generally cooling climate over the Cenozoic (66Ma-present). This trend is punctuated by large multimillenial thermal extreme events, most notably the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (56Ma). We show that the distribution of these thermal extremes is excellently captured by the generalized extreme value distribution. This then motivates its use to investigate the state-dependence of these extremes. The distribution’s shape, captured by the shape parameter ξ, changes consistently with baseline δ 18 O values, such that large thermal extremes (>3 standard deviations) are far more likely in warmer climate states. We project that anthropogenic warming has the potential to return the baseline climate state to one where large thermal extremes are substantially more likely. Short title: Thermal extreme state-dependence 66-0Ma One-Sentence Summary: Warmer baseline climate states are associated with more extreme multimillenial warming events over the past 66 million years.

Satellite radar altimeters have been used to monitor sea level changes and ice sheet elevation changes for more than 3 decades. Over mountain glaciers, radar altimetry has limited applications due to contaminated radar waveforms caused by complex glacier surfaces and steep terrains. In this study, we develop a glacier-threshold method (GTM) to determine glacier elevation changes over mountain glaciers in Alaska. The GTM can detect and remove invalid elevation observations from the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason-2 (J2) altimeters, creating usable elevation observations from 16–92% of the raw observations. The selected elevations are used to construct long-term time series of Alaskan glacier elevation changes over 1993–2002 (T/P) and 2008–2016 (J2) at 47 sites. A crossover analysis and a Lidar comparison confirm the result from T/P and J2. Our finding shows that most of the Alaskan glaciers studied have continued to decline in recent years. The largest declining rate is -11.06 ± 0.35 m/yr over Klutlan Glacier, followed by Chitina Glacier at -8.82 ± 0.12 m/yr. Glacier thickening occurred in some accumulation zones, such as Hubbard Glacier and Logan Glacier, and also at some glacier terminuses. The mechanisms of these elevation changes are discussed using climate datasets. It is suggested that changes in environmental factors such as precipitation, air temperature and sea water temperature influence the shifts in the trends of glacier elevation changes. A sophisticated processing system and altimeter data from repeat missions can facilitate long-term monitoring of small-scaled glaciers for a better understanding of glacier dynamics.

Crustal deformation occurs both as localized slip along faults and distributed deformation off faults; however, we have few robust estimates of off-fault deformation. Scaled physical experiments simulate crustal strike-slip faulting and allow direct measurement of fault slip to regional deformation, quantified as Kinematic Efficiency (KE). We offer an approach for KE prediction using a 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) trained directly on images of fault maps produced by physical experiments. A suite of experiments with different loading rate and basal boundary conditions, contribute over 13,000 fault maps throughout strike-slip fault evolution. Strain maps allow us to directly calculate KE and its uncertainty, utilized in the loss function and performance metric. The trained CNN achieves 91% accuracy in KE prediction of an unseen dataset. The application of the CNN trained on scaled experiments to crustal fault maps provides estimates of off-fault deformation that overlap available geologic estimates.

We report the first estimates of total surfactant photo-reactivity in the sea-surface microlayer (SML) and in subsurface water (SSW) (Tyne estuary, UK; salinity 0.3-32.0). In addition to temperature, a known driver of surfactant adsorption kinetics, we show that irradiation contributes independently to enhanced interfacial surfactant activity (SA), a notion supported by coincident CDOM photodegradation. We estimate a mean SA production via irradiation of 0.064 ± 0.062 mg l-1 T-X-100 equivalents h-1 in the SML and 0.031 ± 0.025 mg l-1 T-X-100 equivalents h-1 in the SSW. Using these data, we derive first-order estimates of the potential suppression of the gas transfer velocity (kw) by photo-derived surfactants ~12.9-48.9%. Given the ubiquitous distribution of natural surfactants in the oceans, we contend that surfactant photochemistry could be a hitherto unrecognized additional driver of air-sea gas exchange, with potential implications for global trace gas budgets and climate models.

We report a new series of step-etch experiments to reveal the influence of microscopy technique on track selection bias. Two different aliquots of induced tracks in Durango apatite were etched for 10-15-20-25-30s and for 20-25-30s in 5.5M HNO3 at 21°C. Three different track selection criteria were applied after the initial etch step of the etching procedure: (1) all tracks with reasonable measurability under transmitted and reflected light switch with 100x objective and 2.5X optovar magnification; (2) ”fully etched” tracks under transmitted light with 100x objective; and (3) ”fully etched” tracks under reflected light with 100x objective. Approach 1 was applied to both aliquots and the approaches 2 and 3 to the latter aliquot. Comparing the mean track lengths, approaches 2 and 3 result in similar values over all experiments, while approach 1 provides a ~0.4 μm higher in the first aliquot and ~0.3 μm lower in the second aliquot than approach 2 and 3 due to higher and lower variations of effective etch times. Comparing the c-axis angles, in the 0-30° range approach 3 provides a severely reduced fraction of tracks due to their weak appearance under reflected light. Furthermore, approach 2 provides ~%14 lower track densities comparing with approaches 1 and 3. We recommend using both transmitted and reflected light during entire track selection and measurement procedures. We are working to develop a new 2+-step etching procedure, where tracks are located after 10s of etching but measured after a second 10s etch step, resulting in better-controlled etching times while reducing the bias associated with analyst choice. Furthermore, this two-step etching procedure can be iterated for more etch-steps, by identifying newly-appeared tracks after each etch step and etching them for 10s more, to increase the number of measured tracks while maintaining consistent selection criteria.

The zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) system with a typical closure temperature of ~160-200°C*1, but lower for higher radiation damaged grains*2, offers the potential for evaluating thermal histories in the uppermost ~10 km of the crust. ZHe thermochronometry has been applied to different geological settings in order to estimate tectonics, uplift and denudation, basin evolution, etc.*3, which can also contribute to evaluating long-term tectonic stabilities for the geologic disposal project. So far, the effectivity of ZHe thermochronology has been verified, however improved age standards for the method are required. To date, the method has conventionally employed zircon fission-track age standards such as the Fish Canyon Tuff (FCT) zircon*4. ZHe grain ages are sometimes over-dispersed owing to factors such as zoning of parent nuclei, radiation damage, grain size and He-bearing inclusions*2,5. Considerable parent isotope zonation was reported in some FCT crystals*6, inviting a search for alternative potential ZHe standards*7,8,9. These works reported robust ZHe data with little age dispersion because of homogeneous U-Th distribution in zircon megacrysts, making them possible reference material candidates. However, a practical issue remains because ZHe analyses of unknown samples are carried out grain-by-grain as opposed to analyzing large pieces of a single grain. We have attempted to assess suitable zircon samples as ZHe age standards by using rapid cooling rock samples of relatively young (<100 Ma) age. This is because such rock samples are expected to empirically exhibit simple thermal histories and little radiation damage. Therefore, age dispersion caused by radiation damage can be relatively small. In order to reassess previous data obtained by Tagami et al. (2003)*10, ZHe analyses of the Pliocene Utaosa rhyolite (TRG-04 and -07) and the Miocene Buluk Tuff have been carried out. In addition, OD-3 zircon*11, a zircon U-Pb age standard, was also analyzed. In this presentation, preliminary ZHe age data from these samples will be presented and compared to evaluate their suitability as ZHe reference materials e.g., FCT. References 1: Reiners et al. (2004), Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 68, p. 1857–1887 2: Guenthner et al. (2013), Am. J. Sci., 313, p. 145–198 3: Ault et al. (2019), Tectonics, 38, p. 3705–3739 4: Gleadow et al. (2015), Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 424, p. 95–108 5: Danišík et al. (2017), Sci. Adv., 3, p. 1–9 6: Dobson et al. (2008), Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 72, p4745–4755 7: Li et al. (2017), Geostand. Geoanal. Res., 41, p. 359–365 8: Yu et al. (2020), Geostand. Geoanal. Res., 44, p. 763–783 9: Kirkland et al. (2020), Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 274, p. 1–19 10:Tagami et al. (2003), Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 207, p. 57–67 11:Iwano et al. (2013), Isl. Arc, 22, p. 382–394 Acknowledgements This study was supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) of Japan.

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) thermochronometry is a tool for constraining cooling histories in low-temperature domains (several tens of degree Celsius) during the past 104–105 years [1][2][3]. This method is currently applied only to rapidly denuded regions (~5mm/yr when a general geothermal gradient in is assumed to be ~0.03℃/m) because luminescence signals in slowly denuded regions saturate before the rocks are exhumated to the surface. However, cooling histories in slowly denuded regions may be constrained if unsaturated samples are obtained from deep boreholes. In addition, using deep borehole core enable to compare the results between samples at multiple depths, which is useful to isolate the denudation history from other events, such as faulting or hydrothermal activity. We applied multi-OSL-thermochronometry [2] to the deep borehole core drilled at the Rokko Mountains, Japan, where slow denudation rates (0.1-1.0 mm/yr) are expected from previous studies [4][5][6]. We used the Kabutoyama core collected by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience [5][7]. The total length of Kabutoyama core is 1,313 m and we collected the samples at 408, 642, 818 and 1048 m for OSL-thermochronometry. Our results showed that useful thermal information can be extracted from the infrared stimulated luminescence signals of samples collected at depths ≥408 m. We found that the sample temperatures remained around the present ambient temperature at each depth for the last 0.1 Myr, indicating that the Rokko Mountains is topographically stable, which was consistent with previous findings. Thus, the thermal denudation history of slowly denuded regions may be constrained by multi-OSL-thermochronometry using samples from deep borehole cores. However, the denudation rates in the Rokko Mountains were too low and could not be determined by this method. Further research is required to quantify the denudation rate. This study was funded by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan as part of its R&D supporting program titled “Establishment of Advanced Technology for Evaluating the Long-term Geosphere Stability on Geological Disposal Project of Radioactive Waste (Fiscal Years 2019-2021)”. References: [1] Herman et al. (2010). Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 297, 183-189; [2] King et al. (2016). Quaternary Geochronology, 33, 76-87; [3] Herman and King (2018). Elements, 14, 33-38; [4] Huzita (1968). The Quaternary Research, 7, 248-260; [5] Sueoka et al. (2010). Journal of Geography, 119, 84-101; [6] Matsuhi et al. (2014). Transactions, Japanese Geomorphological Union, 35, 165-185; [7] Yamada et al. (2012). Technical Note of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, 371, 27p.

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top-of-atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high-resolution global storm-resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Inter-model differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that global storm-resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser-resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.