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Robust uncertainty quantification of the volume of tsunami ionospheric holes for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake: towards low-cost satellite-based tsunami warning systems
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  • Ryuichi Kanai,
  • Serge Guillas,
  • Toshiyasu Nagao,
  • Masashi Kamogawa,
  • Alan Smith
Ryuichi Kanai
University College London, University College London

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Serge Guillas
University College London, University College London
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Toshiyasu Nagao
Tokai University, Tokai University
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Masashi Kamogawa
University of Shizuoka, University of Shizuoka
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Alan Smith
University College London, University College London
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We develop a new method to analyze the total electron content (TEC) depression in the ionosphere after a tsunami occurrence. We employ Gaussian process regression to accurately estimate the TEC disturbance every 30 s using satellite observations from the GNSS network, even over regions without measurements. We face multiple challenges. First, the impact of the acoustic wave generated by a tsunami onto TEC levels is non-linear and anisotropic. Second, observation points are moving. Nevertheless, our method always computes these volumes, along with estimated uncertainties, when applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, even with random selections of only 5% of the 1,000 GPS Earth Observation Network System receivers considered here over Japan. The method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 minutes of the earthquake, at high levels of confidence, even with a sparse receiver network. Hence, it is potentially applicable worldwide using the existing GNSS network.
15 Mar 2022Published in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences volume 22 issue 3 on pages 849-868. 10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022