Weakening of the Gulf Stream at Florida Straits over the past century
inferred from coastal sea-level data
Abstract
The Florida Current marks the beginning of the Gulf Stream at Florida
Straits, and plays an important role in climate. Nearly continuous
measurements of Florida Current transport have been made at
~27N since 1982, but these data are too short to allow
an assessment of possible centennial changes. Here I reconstruct Florida
Current transport during 1909-2018 using probabilistic methods and
principles of ocean dynamics applied to available transport measurements
and longer coastal sea-level data. The Florida Current transport very
likely (probability P=0.93) has weakened since the 1920s, such that
modern measurements made within Florida Straits since 1982 likely
(P=0.87) portray the transport in a reduced state. The weakest decadally
averaged transport during the last 110 y probably (P=0.74) took place
sometime in the last two decades. Weakening of Florida Current transport
is consistent with a hypothesized steady reduction of the deep Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation during the past century.