“‘latex Wading birds have declined globally with pronounced declines in Western Europe. Multiple species are now IUCN Red listed, with northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) near threatened and declining. Declines have been attributed to poor breeding success due to high rates of predation on nests and chicks, by avian and mammalian predators. In Britain badgers (Meles meles) have increased their range and abundance, and can occur at high densities, with potential for acute local predation impacts on vulnerable wader populations. However, factors affecting rates of badger predations on wader nests remain unexplored. Using data from six years of lapwing nest monitoring at a key breeding site in North-East Scotland, we aimed to identify the factors associated with badger nest predation. The overall probability of badger predation was above 0.1 when mean daily temperature was below 4 °C in the 7 days before a nest’s completion, dropping close to zero when above 10 °C. Predation on lapwing clutches also increased with earthworm availability, and inter-annual effects were observed matching variations in temperature, whereby intense badger predation in 2021 coincided with unseasonably cold temperatures. This highlights the potential for weather forecasting to be used to deploy pre-emptive management strategies to mitigate badger predation impacts on lapwing nests.