Nitric Oxide (NO) significantly impacts energy distribution and chemical processes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). During geomagnetic storms, a substantial influx of energy in the thermosphere leads to an increase in NO infrared emissions. Accurately predicting the radiative flux of Nitric Oxide is crucial for understanding the thermospheric energy budget, particularly during extreme space weather events. With advancements in computational techniques, machine learning (ML) has become a highly effective tool for space weather forecasting. This effort becomes even more worthwhile considering the availability of two decades of continuous NO infrared emissions measurement by TIMED/SABER, along with several other key thermospheric variables. We present the scheme of development of an ML-based predictive model for Nitric Oxide Infrared Radiative Flux (NOIRF). Various ML algorithms have been tested for better predictive ability, and an optimized model (NOEMLM) has been developed for the study of NOIRF. This model is able to extract the underlying relationships between the input features and effectively predict the NOIRF. The NOEMLM predictions have very good agreements with SABER observation during quiet time as well as geomagnetic storms. In comparison with the existing TIEGCM model, NOEMLM has very good performance, especially during extreme space weather conditions. The results of this study suggest that utilizing geomagnetic and space weather indices with ML/AI can serve as superior parameters for studying the upper atmosphere, as compared to focusing on specific species having complex chemical processes and associated uncertainties in constituents. ML techniques can effectively carry out the analysis with greater ease than traditional chemical studies.

Both composition and temperature play a crucial role in determining the NO radiative cooling in lower thermosphere as observed by TIMED/SABER. In this work, we present a detailed investigation of seasonal variation in thermospheric NO radiative cooling. We have carried forward the investigation of [1] regarding the variations in local nighttime peak NO radiative cooling and its altitude during solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. By analyzing latitudinal changes over quiet times for each month in year 2018, it is evident that both the investigative parameters exhibit summer-winter variability. The qualitative contribution of different species (i.e., NO, and O), and temperatures in determining the vertical profile of NO radiative cooling for different latitudes is investigated by utilizing the NRLMSISE-00 estimated parameters, and SNOE observed NO density. The temperature, NO density, meridional wind, and associated compositional variations due to asymmetrical solar heating in both the hemispheres during solar minimum conditions seem to be the dominating factor in controlling the NO radiative cooling during different seasons. The altitudes at which maximum cooling by NO occurs exhibits an inverse correlation with the amount of radiative cooling. The region of enhanced NO densities (polar and summer hemispheric low-mid latitude regions) have larger NO radiative cooling with lower peak altitudes in comparison to other regions (equatorial to winter hemispheric low-mid latitude regions), where NO radiative cooling is low with higher peak altitude values.