Assimilating summer sea-ice thickness observations improves Arctic
sea-ice forecast
Abstract
Proper Arctic sea-ice forecasting for the melt season is still a major
challenge because of the recent lack of reliable pan-Arctic summer
sea-ice thickness (SIT) data. A new summer CryoSat-2 SIT observation
data set based on an artificial intelligence algorithm may alleviate
this situation. We assess the impact of this new data set on the
initialization of sea-ice forecasts in the melt seasons of 2015 and 2016
in a coupled sea ice-ocean model with data assimilation. We find that
the assimilation of the summer CryoSat-2 SIT observations can reduce the
summer ice-edge forecast error. Further, adding SIT observations to an
established forecast system with sea-ice concentration assimilation
leads to more realistic short-term summer ice-edge forecasts in the
Arctic Pacific sector. The long-term Arctic-wide SIT prediction is also
improved. In spite of remaining uncertainties, summer CryoSat-2 SIT
observations have the potential to improve Arctic sea-ice forecast on
multiple time scales.